#16Joshua Burrell

TE·Arkansas State·2026

Joshua Burrell is a Slot Specialist TE for Arkansas State.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Joshua Burrell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2026 Production

Receiving

2 Receptions18 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2026 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume5
Explosiveness13
Consistency50
Pass-Down50

Player type

Slot Specialist TE

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸Peak game: 0.82 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Memphis (SP+ 2).

NIL Market Tier· 2026

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ty Thompson	Tulane	2024	48	0.420	0.7	20.2
Seth Green	Minnesota	2018	83	0.390	0.0	32.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Memphis	L24-42	2.1	1	10	10.0	0	10	0.82
2	vsWest Georgia	W52-7	—	1	8	8.0	0	8	0.75

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

1.7%

Passing plays

4.1%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

0.0%

Passing downs

7.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: —
Passing downs: 0.78
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.78 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).