Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Ole Miss gets at Florida: 11th on first and second down, against a unit 71st on early downs defensively. Where Florida gets at Ole Miss: 26th in the push up front, against a unit 75th at holding the line of scrimmage. Ole Miss is also 4th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 57th.
How
MISSattacks
FLA
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
MISS#11 of 138FLA#71 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
MISS#4 of 138FLA#57 of 138
HowFLAattacksMISS
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
FLA#26 of 138MISS#75 of 138
The two teams
Ole Miss
Ole Miss is in year 1 under Pete Golding. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at staying on schedule through the air.
Ole Miss has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#4projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#7projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#8projected
Florida
Florida is in year 1 under Jon Sumrall, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 26th in the push up front. The way in is 126th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Florida has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#26projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#29projected
- Defenserunning it#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#126projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Availability-adjusted projection
what the absences moveAvailability impact
Model estimateNo ruled-out starters
- Out Kahleil Jackson (WR)not quantified
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1658, MISS Elo 1837 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA +15.3 (15% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MISS65th50thFLAFLA4th125thMISSThrough the air
MISS17th120thFLAFLA11th126thMISSOn the ground
MISS74th80thFLAFLA15th105thMISSStaying on the field
MISS94th116thFLAFLA20th101stMISSTaking care of it
MISS68th30thFLAFLA31st118thMISS
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 13–13–1 · 44% have been one-possession games
| MISS | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.3 (#26) | CORE overall | +17.6 (#17) |
| +14 / +1 | offense / defense | +10 / -8 |
| 3.15 | points / drive | 6.00 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 9% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Ole Miss vs. Florida?
Gridpex's model favors Ole Miss with a 85% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ole Miss vs. Florida?
The model projects Ole Miss by 15.3.
What time is Ole Miss vs. Florida and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →