Auburn vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Auburn gets at Ole Miss: 23rd at running it, against a unit 74th at defending the run. Where Ole Miss gets at Auburn: 4th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 52nd at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Auburn is also 39th in the push up front, against a unit 75th.
How
AUBattacks
MISS
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
AUB#23 of 138MISS#74 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
AUB#39 of 138MISS#75 of 138
HowMISSattacksAUB
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
MISS#4 of 138AUB#52 of 138 - 2
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MISS#38 of 138AUB#77 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
MISS#7 of 138AUB#45 of 138
The two teams
Auburn
Auburn is in year 1 under Alex Golesh, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 5th at defending the run. The way in is 129th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Auburn has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenserunning it#5projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#5projected
- Defensefirst and second down#20projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#129projected
Ole Miss
Ole Miss is in year 1 under Pete Golding. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at staying on schedule through the air.
Ole Miss has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#4projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#7projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#8projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1837, AUB Elo 1613 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS -20.1 (91% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
AUB108th125thMISSMISS65th51stAUBThrough the air
AUB55th126thMISSMISS17th131stAUBOn the ground
AUB94th105thMISSMISS74th59thAUBStaying on the field
AUB20th101stMISSMISS94th56thAUBTaking care of it
AUB95th118thMISSMISS68th53rdAUB
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAuburn leads 35–13 · Ole Miss has won 2 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| AUB | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.3 (#59) | CORE overall | +13.3 (#26) |
| -3 / -6 | offense / defense | +14 / +1 |
| 1.42 | points / drive | 3.15 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Auburn vs. Ole Miss?
Gridpex's model favors Ole Miss with a 91% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Auburn vs. Ole Miss?
The model projects Ole Miss by 20.1.
What time is Auburn vs. Ole Miss and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →