#13Sawyer Robertson

QB·Baylor·2025 20246.8 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Sawyer Robertson is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Baylor. Sawyer's 2025 season ranks in the 35th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 539 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sawyer Robertson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

304/503 Comp/Att3681 Pass yards31 Pass TD12 INT60.4% Comp %

Rushing

17 Rush yards3 Rush TD56 Carries0.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency35
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency75
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)35th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.30 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.75 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Oklahoma State (SP+ -15).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAuburn	L24-38	11.6	27/48	419	3	0	65.6	-19	0	0.40
2	@SMU	W48-45	13.4	34/50	440	4	0	91.9	20	0	0.49
3	vsSamford	W42-7	—	23/37	211	3	2	41.2	11	0	0.19
4	vsArizona State	L24-27	3.9	25/39	250	3	1	71.3	-9	0	0.27
5	@Oklahoma State	W45-27	-15.1	24/35	393	4	0	81.1	6	1	0.75
6	vsKansas State	W35-34	7.0	25/39	345	2	1	76.8	2	0	0.42
8	@TCU	L36-42	8.3	25/52	318	2	3	40.6	-12	0	0.08
9	@Cincinnati	L20-41	4.5	18/26	137	2	0	67.9	6	1	0.25
10	vsUCF	W30-3	-1.2	29/40	267	3	0	87.0	8	0	0.38
12	vsUtah	L28-55	22.2	29/58	430	3	2	66.1	1	0	0.10
13	@Arizona	L17-41	12.0	22/33	162	1	2	55.3	-10	1	-0.11
14	vsHouston	L24-31	7.4	23/46	309	1	1	48.7	13	0	-0.00

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

60.9%

Passing plays

98.7%

Rushing plays

9.5%

Standard downs

55.1%

Passing downs

74.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.25 / 0.74

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 — 2025 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2024	Baylor	8.3	0.500	—	224.8
2025	Baylor	6.8	0.370	-0.13	178.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.