#1Colton Joseph

QB·Old Dominion·20256.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Colton Joseph is a Dual-Threat QB for Old Dominion. Colton's 2025 season ranks in the 53th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 392 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Colton Joseph's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

173/288 Comp/Att2619 Pass yards21 Pass TD10 INT60.1% Comp %

Rushing

1011 Rush yards13 Rush TD157 Carries6.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency53
Volume100
Dual-Threat69
Consistency86
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)53th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.22 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.74 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Virginia Tech (SP+ -10).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Indiana	L14-27	32.4	11/22	96	0	3	62.0	179	2	0.55
2	vsNorth Carolina Central	W54-6	—	19/24	257	3	0	63.5	52	1	0.67
3	@Virginia Tech	W45-26	-10.1	16/22	276	2	0	96.1	63	1	0.74
5	vsLiberty	W21-7	-9.0	18/26	271	3	1	66.2	76	0	0.40
6	vsCoastal Carolina	W47-7	-15.1	17/30	315	4	0	94.8	66	1	0.68
7	@Marshall	L24-48	-4.5	15/28	266	1	2	38.8	50	1	0.27
8	@James Madison	L27-63	12.3	13/21	209	3	2	87.7	4	0	0.42
9	vsApp State	W24-21	-11.4	21/33	305	3	1	58.6	62	0	0.27
10	@UL Monroe	W31-6	-21.6	12/22	231	0	0	62.0	72	3	0.26
12	vsTroy	W33-0	-4.8	10/20	147	1	0	79.6	90	2	0.42
13	@Georgia Southern	W45-10	-9.4	12/18	140	1	0	87.1	189	1	0.57
14	vsGeorgia State	W27-10	-24.5	9/22	106	0	1	--	108	1	0.02

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.0%

Passing plays

95.0%

Rushing plays

29.5%

Standard downs

50.3%

Passing downs

67.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.62
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.48 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.