#1Jaylen Raynor

QB·Arkansas State·2025

Jaylen Raynor is a Clutch Passer for Arkansas State. Jaylen's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 659 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jaylen Raynor's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

332/500 Comp/Att3364 Pass yards19 Pass TD11 INT66.4% Comp %

Rushing

428 Rush yards7 Rush TD154 Carries2.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat47
Consistency68
Clutch74

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.83 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Southeast Missouri State.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSoutheast Missouri State	W42-24	—	26/32	345	3	0	80.0	17	0	0.83
2	vsArkansas	L14-56	5.1	21/33	125	1	2	42.1	38	0	-0.05
3	vsIowa State	L16-24	9.9	19/33	222	0	1	51.0	83	1	0.07
4	@Kennesaw State	L21-28	-5.4	25/41	226	2	0	28.2	5	1	0.20
5	@UL Monroe	L16-28	-21.6	29/46	288	0	1	20.5	-34	0	0.00
6	vsTexas State	W31-30	2.3	27/35	248	2	0	62.3	92	2	0.28
8	@South Alabama	W15-14	-12.7	29/45	209	1	1	43.5	76	0	0.13
9	vsGeorgia Southern	W34-24	-9.4	24/37	216	0	1	53.4	54	3	0.24
10	@Troy	W23-10	-4.8	21/29	247	2	0	66.1	5	0	0.31
11	vsSouthern Miss	L21-27	-7.1	37/48	331	2	4	59.3	23	0	0.05
13	vsLouisiana	L30-34	-10.1	25/43	256	0	0	42.6	54	0	0.08
14	@App State	W30-29	-11.4	32/47	363	3	1	59.8	26	0	0.33
20	vsMissouri State	W34-28	-10.7	17/31	288	3	0	73.1	-11	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

68.2%

Passing plays

99.3%

Rushing plays

30.0%

Standard downs

61.1%

Passing downs

84.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.29
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.21 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).