#5Marlon Mack

RB·South Florida·2016 20153.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Marlon Mack is a 2-year Pass-Catching Back for South Florida. Marlon's 2016 season ranks in the 85th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 187 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Marlon Mack's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1187 Rush yards15 Rush TD174 Carries6.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

28 Receptions227 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency85
Volume70
Explosiveness76
Consistency71
Receiving91

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)85th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (85th percentile).
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.64 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Syracuse (SP+ -3).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Tyjae Spears	Tulane	2022	234	0.450	5.7	105.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsTowson	W56-20	—	9	58	6.4	1	—	—	—	0.20
3	@Syracuse	W45-20	-2.7	9	115	12.8	2	1	8	0	0.64
4	vsFlorida State	L35-55	24.0	12	42	3.5	1	—	—	—	0.09
5	@Cincinnati	W45-20	-3.6	20	118	5.9	2	—	—	—	0.17
6	vsEast Carolina	W38-22	-9.0	18	152	8.4	2	3	5	0	0.02
7	vsUConn	W42-27	-11.6	16	107	6.7	1	6	75	0	0.46
8	@Temple	L30-46	11.9	13	67	5.2	1	3	33	0	0.27
9	vsNavy	W52-45	6.8	11	125	11.4	1	3	25	0	0.61
11	@Memphis	W49-42	7.7	15	69	4.6	1	9	61	0	0.32
12	@SMU	W35-27	-10.8	18	129	7.2	1	—	—	—	0.13
13	vsUCF	W48-31	-2.2	20	155	7.8	2	1	8	0	—
1	vsSouth Carolina	W46-39	-4.0	13	50	3.8	0	2	12	0	-0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

24.6%

Passing plays

12.3%

Rushing plays

33.0%

Standard downs

27.9%

Passing downs

17.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.27
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.08 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	South Florida	2.9	0.310	—	61.1
2016	South Florida	3.5	0.440	+0.13	68.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.