#5Marlon Mack

RB·South Florida·2016 20152.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Marlon Mack is a 2-year Featured Back for South Florida. Marlon's 2015 season ranks in the 43th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 218 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Marlon Mack's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1381 Rush yards8 Rush TD210 Carries6.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

16 Receptions111 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency43
Volume79
Explosiveness72
Consistency61
Receiving45

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)43th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency61th %ile · average

Key findings

▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.85 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Temple (SP+ 6).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsFlorida A&M	W51-3	—	23	131	5.7	1	2	6	0	0.13
2	@Florida State	L14-34	23.2	18	83	4.6	0	5	9	0	0.09
3	@Maryland	L17-35	-1.6	12	71	5.9	0	1	7	0	0.27
5	vsMemphis	L17-24	8.0	20	107	5.3	0	1	17	0	0.17
6	vsSyracuse	W45-24	-3.9	20	184	9.2	2	—	—	—	0.50
7	@UConn	W28-20	-6.3	13	113	8.7	0	2	4	0	0.17
9	@Navy	L17-29	12.1	10	29	2.9	1	—	—	—	-0.28
10	@East Carolina	W22-17	-0.5	27	117	4.3	0	1	14	0	-0.09
11	vsTemple	W44-23	6.0	21	230	11.0	2	3	42	1	0.85
12	vsCincinnati	W65-27	5.3	11	106	9.6	2	—	—	—	0.60
13	@UCF	W44-3	-15.5	18	102	5.7	0	1	12	0	0.07
1	vsWestern Kentucky	L35-45	10.8	17	108	6.4	0	—	—	—	0.21

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

27.5%

Passing plays

6.8%

Rushing plays

39.7%

Standard downs

31.9%

Passing downs

17.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.27
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	South Florida	2.9	0.310	—	61.1
2016	South Florida	3.5	0.440	+0.13	68.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.