#3Larry Rose III

RB·New Mexico State·20155.2 pts line value1st Round

Larry Rose III is a Featured Back for New Mexico State. Larry's 2015 season ranks in the 78th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 261 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Larry Rose III's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1651 Rush yards14 Rush TD240 Carries6.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

30 Receptions283 Rec yards2 Rec TD9.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency78
Volume89
Explosiveness78
Consistency62
Receiving53

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)78th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency62th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (78th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.07 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs New Mexico (SP+ -9).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ameer Abdullah	Nebraska	2014	262	0.380	5.3	99.6
LeVante Bellamy	Western Michigan	2019	269	0.400	5.4	107.6
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Florida	L13-61	13.8	12	64	5.3	1	2	42	0	0.30
2	vsGeorgia State	L32-34	-6.7	18	69	3.8	1	4	27	0	-0.04
3	vsUTEP	L47-50	-19.5	20	186	9.3	1	2	5	0	0.52
5	@New Mexico	L29-38	-8.7	21	260	12.4	3	—	—	—	1.07
6	@Ole Miss	L3-52	27.0	9	26	2.9	0	2	8	0	-0.02
7	@Georgia Southern	L26-56	7.3	14	86	6.1	0	5	31	0	0.13
8	vsTroy	L7-52	-7.0	21	180	8.6	0	5	67	1	0.39
9	vsIdaho	W55-48	-12.2	25	212	8.5	4	2	11	0	0.82
10	@Texas State	W31-21	-15.5	31	207	6.7	2	2	85	1	0.45
12	@Louisiana	W37-34	-7.1	27	191	7.1	0	2	1	0	0.05
13	vsArkansas State	L28-52	0.5	15	106	7.1	0	2	5	0	-0.00
14	@UL Monroe	L35-42	-14.7	27	64	2.4	2	2	1	0	-0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.2%

Passing plays

9.1%

Rushing plays

58.2%

Standard downs

35.6%

Passing downs

23.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.53
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.01 / 0.37

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.