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New Mexico State

New Mexico State Aggies

Conference USA·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1259#126
SP+
-15.0#119
FPI
-13.0
AP
NR
Next@ Hawai'i · Wk 2Win prob 7%Model +22.7
Talent #135 (460.4)Recruiting class #13624% production returning

Roster · 105 players

FR 25SO 15JR 34SR 31
#PlayerPosClHtWt
3Trey HeddenQBJR6'3"225
4Parker StofaQBSO6'4"210
12Kalani McLeodQBSO6'2"205
14Adam DamanteQBJR6'2"195
17Trey ArnoldQBFR6'2"210
0TJ Washington Jr.RBJR5'11"205
2James JonesRBSR6'1"205
8Dijon StanleyRBSR6'0"185
16Xavier RuckerRBFR5'11"195
21Isaiah RudisonRBSR5'11"220
22Roscoe BurtonRBSR5'9"180
28Jalen BrownRBJR6'2"225
34David BarelaRBJR5'10"200
1TK KingWRSR5'9"180
5Myles LibmanWRJR6'0"185
6Brodie Malone-BradfordWRSO6'5"205
7TJ PrideWRJR5'9"170
9Terrione GravesWRJR5'10"170
10Lyndon RavareWRSR6'0"180
11AJ Williams IIIWRJR6'4"195
13Jaylen StokesWRFR5'10"175
25Jayden BellWRJR5'9"170
29Kaden TrevinoWRJR5'11"182
80Izeyah WrightWRSO6'4"210
81JaDarius SandersWRFR6'1"185
82AJ CareyWRFR6'2"185
89Josiah CastilloWRFR6'3"190
15Josiah ThomasTESO6'2"215
18Joshua GoinesTEJR6'3"235
19Ray LottenTEJR6'5"240
48Duke FryeTESR6'0"280
86Jerry LydiattTEJR6'3"240
87Luke LopezTEFR6'4"220
88Carson Su'esu'eTEFR6'5"240
50Luke MoiseOLJR6'3"300
54Tyler KeinathOLSR6'2"318
55Ma'Kyi LeeOLSR6'7"315
56Mark ChapmanOLSR6'3"300
58Sioeli HeluOLSR6'2"295
62Ezra HensleyOLFR6'3"295
64Sam GarciaOLFR6'4"280
65Isaiah Garcia PerezOLFR6'5"300
66Caleb PyfromOLSO6'5"325
67JR HecklinskiOLFR6'2"280
69James WilliamsOLJR6'3"320
70Mateo RodriguezOLSO6'5"305
71Evan BlaettlerOLJR6'5"300
72Merrick BecerraOLSO6'6"315
75Hayden HarlanOLSR6'4"295
77Gavin JonesOLFR6'6"315
78Armond OwensOLJR6'5"310
8Brad VisliselDEJR6'3"240
15Obinna OkekeDEJR6'3"246
16Gabe PetersonDESR6'2"255
21Zhakius ThomasDEJR6'2"250
29Jamaun ThompsonDEFR6'2"230
30Demanuel BrownDEJR6'2"252
52Joey BanegasDESR6'3"230
99Reeves BallerDEJR6'6"230
13Kaian Roberts-DayDLSR6'3"295
17Raylon CarterDLFR6'3"275
25Jeremiah SandifordDLSR6'0"290
31Paul KouameDLSO6'3"235
44Enzo-Pierre TayouDLSR6'2"280
90Jordan-Lebron DowneyDLJR6'2"280
93Latrell TreadwellDLJR6'0"265
94Ellijah FarrDLFR6'2"350
95Josiah JacksonDLSR6'1"290
97Henry Davis IIIDLSR6'2"280
98Jason GwanDLJR6'2"260
6Tory GethersLBSR6'1"215
10Chance BarronLBJR6'0"215
14Sone AupiuLBSR6'1"225
24Drake WilliamsLBFR6'0"190
34Zaiden DavisLBSO6'2"200
36Nathan WallinLBSR6'0"210
40Jaylyn ManningLBFR6'1"230
42Fa'apaia FualemaLBJR6'0"225
53Jason Freeman Jr.LBFR6'1"175
1Josiah CharlesCBSR6'0"175
2Javon GillespieCBJR6'1"185
4De'Marcus PetersCBSR5'10"175
7Twan WilsonCBSO6'0"171
12Amaurey BrooksCBSO6'0"180
23Izzy Clark-WhiteCBJR6'0"170
32Elijah GutierrezCBSO6'0"185
35Mason MillerCBFR6'0"170
0Lorenzo SmithSSR6'0"190
3Tayden BarnesSJR5'9"185
5Nick SessionSSR6'0"190
9Bernock IyaSSR6'2"180
11Walter OwensSJR6'2"195
18Desmin Hatfield-RushtonSJR6'3"190
19Garrett StennettSFR6'0"185
20DJ CloydSSR6'1"200
22RJ ChapmanSSR6'0"190
26Jakobe CampbellSSO6'0"180
28Matthew LashleySSO6'0"170
37Eric RiveraSJR6'2"195
17Ilya UvaydovPKSR5'8"175
40Kyah FranconePKFR6'0"165
92David BarkerPKFR6'0"170
91Brody RichterPSR6'3"210
41Braydyn SageLSFR6'0"180
45Rocky StallworthLSFR6'0"190

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
34.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
24.0
scoring defense
Differential
+10.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
424.5#59
Yards / play
6.5#53
Passing yards / game
283.5#39
Rushing yards / game
141.0#84
First downs / game
19.0#90
3rd down %
56.7%#18
4th down %
50.0%#67
Time of possession
28:51#92
Defense
Yards allowed / game
328.0#75
Yards / play allowed
5.3#80
Pass yards allowed / game
184.5#64
Rush yards allowed / game
143.5#93
3rd down % allowed
48.1%#114
Sacks
3#58
Tackles for loss
7#77
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+2#22
Takeaways
3#30
Giveaways
1#31
Penalties / game
8.5#107
Penalty yards / game
70.0#109

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

run-leaning

New Mexico State runs it: Tony Sanchez's offenses have been run-leaning across 7 seasons. The way in is 136th at running it, and they are 136th at staying out of the backfield.

On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −33.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

New Mexico State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected soft spots

  • Offenserunning it
    #136
    projected
  • Offensegetting stopped at the line
    #136
    projected
  • Offensesacks and tackles for loss
    #131
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
3.8 – 8.2
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
2.8
of 10 games
Bowl odds
11%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
42%
vs Jacksonville State
Toughest
7%
vs Hawai'i

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 27% chance
Likeliest finish 4-8 (27%)Bowl eligible 11% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
WRTyler King, Myles Libman +4
+22.7 EPA
QBTrey Hedden
+19.3 EPA
RBDijon Stanley, Terrell Washington Jr. +2
+10.6 EPA
TEJerry Lydiatt, Carson Su'esu'e +1
-0.1 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBTrey Hedden
~$823K
EPA +19.30.288/play67 snaps
RBJames Jones
~$169K
EPA +3.20.105/play31 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.2246th#75
Def0.1828th#100
Explosiveness
Off1.5291st#14
Def1.3142nd#81
Field position
Off71.565th#49
Def68.981st#27
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.3658th#58
Def4.3617th#115
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 1
Margin +2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.3855th#63
Off · rush
0.1755th#62

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.1755th#62
Def0.2413th#120
Passing
Off0.3855th#63
Def0.1559th#57

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.36#43
2nd-level / open-field
1.12 / 1.24
Power / stuff (off)
63.6% / 14.0%
Havoc — total (def)
13.5%#104
Havoc — front 7 / DB
6.3% / 7.1%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off-0.00
Def0.10
Pass downs
Off0.63
Def0.33

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.01#87-0.19#1191.13#13
Defense-0.16#430.17#850.84#122

Elo Trajectory

@Florida StateFinal
Elo rating 1281 → 1259-22 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.2960th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.1240th
  • Offense success rate42%41st
  • Defense success rate allowed40%42nd

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs42%26th
  • Offense success — passing downs38%64th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs44%43rd
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs33%35th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.693rd
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.245th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.280th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.379th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.256th
  • Defense line yards allowed3.031st
  • Offense highlight yards0.8045th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed1.136th
  • Offense power success0.7853rd
  • Defense power success allowed0.8334th
  • Offense stuff rate0.1461st
  • Defense stuff rate0.2259th

Third down

  • Third down conversion57%77th
  • Third down distance faced6.655th
  • Third down conversion allowed48%22nd
  • Third down distance forced7.044th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half-0.0926th
  • Net success rate — second half0.1767th

Drives

  • Points per drive1.949th
  • Points per drive allowed3.820th
  • Average starting field position229th
  • Opponent starting field position3038th
  • Available yards gained45%41st
  • Available yards allowed71%14th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive78%47th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed100%16th
  • Points per scoring opportunity2.446th
  • Points allowed per opportunity3.824th
  • Three-and-out rate33%36th
  • Three-and-outs forced11%23rd

Roster

  • Returning usage30%36th
  • Returning EPA34.217th
  • Team talent composite4602nd
  • Recruiting class rank1363rd
  • Recruiting class points1293rd

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

EPA/play
+0.216#75 · average
Pass EPA/play
+0.376#63
Rush EPA/play
+0.170#62
Explosiveness
1.521#14
Pts/opportunity
4.36#58
Success rate
39.5%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.206 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disciplined defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.178#100 · below avg
Havoc rate (total)
13.5%#104
Front-7 havoc
6.3%
DB havoc
7.1%
Big play rate allowed
1.305#81
Success rate allowed
42.0%

Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.

📊

Season Signature

34.0 PPG offense, 24.0 allowed — +10.0 margin/game
Points per game
34.0
Points allowed/game
24.0
Scoring margin/game
+10.0
Turnover margin
+2won 3 · lost 1
Production returning
24%
Talent rank (247)
#135

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE46thEXPLOSIVENESS91thFINISHING58thFIELD POS65thDEFENSE28thHAVOC25th50th100th
Offense
46th
Explosiveness
91th
Finishing
58th
Field Pos
65th
Defense
28th
Havoc
25th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-12.7
#121
Offense
-8.5
#120
Defense
+4.2
#106
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 9 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive1.893.78
Starting field positionown 22.0own 29.6
Available yards44.8%70.7%
Scoring opportunities77.8%100.0%
Points per opportunity2.433.78
Three-and-out rate33.3%11.1%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
69.8%
Expected, given the spots
59.3%
Over expected
+10.5
Fourth down vs peers
+1
Fourth down vs the model
+0
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. New Mexico State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to New Mexico State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
ArizonaSP+ +12.6
Off EPA/play +0.185Def EPA/play +0.169Elo 1625
Match
98%
Sam HoustonSP+ -21.5
Off EPA/play +0.168Def EPA/play +0.157Elo 1164
Match
98%
TempleSP+ -4.9
Off EPA/play +0.194Def EPA/play +0.132Elo 1312
Match
97%
Coastal CarolinaSP+ -12.1
Off EPA/play +0.219Def EPA/play +0.125Elo 1270
Match
97%
KentuckySP+ +8.5
Off EPA/play +0.155Def EPA/play +0.178Elo 1476
Match
97%
AkronSP+ -21.4
Off EPA/play +0.190Def EPA/play +0.228Elo 929
Match
97%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -26.9, #125 of 1282016: -20.3, #118 of 1282017: -9.3, #94 of 1302018: -20.7, #122 of 1302019: -22.9, #123 of 1302021: -32.3, #126 of 1302022: -18.8, #122 of 1312023: +1.1, #55 of 1332024: -24.3, #129 of 1342025: -17.5, #120 of 1362026: -12.7, #121 of 138
20152026
Now -12.7 · #121 of 138Best +1.1 in 2023Worst -32.3 in 2021

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-0
50%
1.0-0.0
20254-82-6
33%
4.8-0.8
20243-92-6
25%
4.6-1.6
202310-57-2
67%
10.3-0.3
20227-62-0
54%
7.3-0.3
20212-100-0
17%
2.1-0.1
20201-10-0
50%
0.0+1.0
20192-100-0
17%
3.1-1.1
20183-90-0
25%
2.3+0.7
20177-64-4
54%
6.5+0.5

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.1%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.6-6.5. Wins the Conference USA in 7.2%.

If they finish with…

15%
1 loss
0.3%
2 losses
0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

Win out and it is 15%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

down 0.0 points since preseason — lost 17-34 to Florida State against an expected margin of −30, so +13.0 against the number.

  • At 1 loss they are 15% where the average Conference USA team is 13%.
  • The Conference USA takes 0.02 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.1% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.

New Mexico State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk4vs New Mexico0.3
  • wk2at Hawai'i0.2
  • wk10vs Liberty0.2
  • wk6at Florida International0.1
  • wk12vs Delaware0.1
  • wk5vs Western Kentucky0.1

Who to root for

Games New Mexico State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk10Sacramento State over Toledo0.1
  • wk12Georgia State over Marshall0.1
  • wk4Illinois over Ohio State0.1
  • wk5Charlotte over Memphis0.1
  • wk9Mississippi State over Texas0.1
  • wk2Illinois State over Northern Illinois0.1
The full playoff picture →

Conference USA

0-0 in league play, projected 4.1-3.96 of 10 by title odds
7.2%
Wins the Conference USA
18%
Reaches the title game

The Conference USA sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 42% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk10Liberty at New Mexico State15.4
  • wk6New Mexico State at Florida International11.4
  • wk12Delaware at New Mexico State10.5
  • wk5Western Kentucky at New Mexico State10.1

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Conference USA race →

If not the playoff, then

51%
Bowl eligible
50%
Placed in a bowl
0.1%
In the playoff
50%
Season over in November

New Mexico State is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • Hawai'i Bowl12%
  • New Orleans Bowl10%
  • 68 Ventures Bowl8.2%
  • Armed Forces Bowl7.3%
  • Boca Raton Bowl3.7%
  • Xbox Bowl2.8%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent New Mexico State a player since 2010 — 14 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of New Mexico State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
ManvelTX40
CentennialCA30
Arlington MartinTX21
FriscoTX20
LancasterTX20
John TylerTX10
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.