#10Javian Hawkins

RB·Louisville·2020 20192.6 pts line value

Javian Hawkins is a 2-year Featured Back for Louisville. Javian's 2020 season ranks in the 55th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 152 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Javian Hawkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

822 Rush yards7 Rush TD133 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

16 Receptions127 Rec yards1 Rec TD7.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency55
Volume94
Explosiveness64
Consistency57
Receiving45

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)55th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.11 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.81 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Florida State (SP+ -5).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	vsWestern Kentucky	W35-21	-3.2	19	71	3.7	1	—	—	—	0.05
3	vsMiami	L34-47	12.8	27	164	6.1	1	1	12	0	0.54
4	@Pittsburgh	L20-23	6.0	13	78	6.0	1	1	4	0	0.02
6	@Georgia Tech	L27-46	-1.0	26	155	6.0	0	3	15	0	0.09
7	@Notre Dame	L7-12	21.0	15	51	3.4	0	5	46	0	-0.15
8	vsFlorida State	W48-16	-4.9	16	174	10.9	3	1	8	0	0.81
9	vsVirginia Tech	L35-42	13.7	17	129	7.6	1	5	42	1	0.17
12	vsSyracuse	W30-0	-9.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

33.0%

Passing plays

8.1%

Rushing plays

56.3%

Standard downs

37.3%

Passing downs

25.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.49
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 20 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Louisville	1.0	0.190	—	50.0
2020	Louisville	2.6	0.360	+0.17	51.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.