#10Javian Hawkins

RB·Louisville·2020 20191.0 pts line value

Javian Hawkins is a 2-year Featured Back for Louisville. Javian's 2019 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 255 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Javian Hawkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1525 Rush yards9 Rush TD264 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

4 Receptions58 Rec yards0 Rec TD14.5 Yards/rec

Returns

3 Kick returns47 KR yards0 KR TD1 Punt returns10 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency3
Volume88
Explosiveness56
Consistency0
Receiving12

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.18 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.63 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Syracuse (SP+ -3).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNotre Dame	L17-35	17.7	19	122	6.4	0	—	—	—	0.14
2	vsEastern Kentucky	W42-0	—	11	123	11.2	0	—	—	—	0.01
3	vsWestern Kentucky	W38-21	1.7	19	93	4.9	1	—	—	—	0.00
4	@Florida State	L24-35	1.8	17	52	3.1	0	—	—	—	-0.15
6	vsBoston College	W41-39	-5.7	25	172	6.9	1	1	13	0	0.17
7	@Wake Forest	W62-59	2.0	20	60	3.0	1	—	—	—	-0.33
8	vsClemson	L10-45	28.1	26	129	5.0	1	—	—	—	0.00
9	vsVirginia	W28-21	6.3	28	136	4.9	2	1	1	0	0.10
11	@Miami	L27-52	9.6	15	91	6.1	0	1	40	0	0.19
12	@NC State	W34-20	-6.3	16	67	4.2	0	—	—	—	-0.07
13	vsSyracuse	W56-34	-3.0	23	233	10.1	1	—	—	—	0.63
14	@Kentucky	L13-45	9.1	22	142	6.5	1	1	4	0	0.10
1	vsMississippi State	W38-28	3.5	23	105	4.6	1	—	—	—	-0.00

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

30.9%

Passing plays

2.1%

Rushing plays

49.8%

Standard downs

36.2%

Passing downs

21.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.04
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.24 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 20 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Louisville	1.0	0.190	—	50.0
2020	Louisville	2.6	0.360	+0.17	51.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.