#20Jamal Roberts

RB·Missouri·20252.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jamal Roberts is a Pass-Catching Back for Missouri. Jamal's 2025 season ranks in the 93th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 149 plays — a elite rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jamal Roberts's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

753 Rush yards6 Rush TD124 Carries6.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

18 Receptions141 Rec yards1 Rec TD7.8 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns21 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency93
Volume46
Explosiveness62
Consistency58
Receiving82

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)93th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency58th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.14 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.93 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Arkansas (SP+ 5).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsCentral Arkansas	W61-6	—	8	33	4.1	0	1	8	0	0.03
2	vsKansas	W42-31	4.1	13	143	11.0	1	2	9	0	0.65
3	vsLouisiana	W52-10	-10.1	8	46	5.8	0	1	39	1	0.22
4	vsSouth Carolina	W29-20	5.9	13	76	5.8	1	—	—	—	0.43
5	vsMassachusetts	W42-6	-36.6	6	52	8.7	1	2	15	0	0.24
7	vsAlabama	L24-27	14.8	5	50	10.0	0	3	27	0	0.41
8	@Auburn	W23-17	11.6	3	6	2.0	0	2	13	0	-0.09
9	@Vanderbilt	L10-17	20.3	10	22	2.2	0	1	2	0	-0.21
11	vsTexas A&M	L17-38	20.7	17	110	6.5	1	1	1	0	0.43
12	vsMississippi State	W49-27	4.1	9	45	5.0	0	—	—	—	0.02
13	@Oklahoma	L6-17	18.3	10	14	1.4	0	3	15	0	-0.20
14	@Arkansas	W31-17	5.1	11	100	9.1	1	1	10	0	0.93
20	vsVirginia	L7-13	11.1	11	56	5.1	1	1	2	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

16.1%

Passing plays

7.3%

Rushing plays

23.1%

Standard downs

17.3%

Passing downs

13.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.38
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.04 / 0.31

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.