#8Darrell Henderson

RB·Memphis·2018 20173.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Darrell Henderson is a 2-year Explosive Back for Memphis. Darrell's 2017 season ranks in the 85th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 154 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Darrell Henderson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

1154 Rush yards9 Rush TD130 Carries8.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

24 Receptions226 Rec yards2 Rec TD9.4 Yards/rec

Returns

13 Kick returns250 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency85
Volume51
Explosiveness100
Consistency58
Receiving68

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)85th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency58th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (85th percentile).
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.10 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs East Carolina (SP+ -14).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsUL Monroe	W37-29	-12.9	12	169	14.1	2	—	—	—	0.65
3	vsUCLA	W48-45	4.9	14	105	7.5	0	3	11	0	0.05
4	vsSouthern Illinois	W44-31	—	12	71	5.9	1	1	7	0	0.34
5	@UCF	L13-40	14.1	6	48	8.0	0	1	25	0	0.66
6	@UConn	W70-31	-19.2	11	55	5.0	0	3	23	0	0.17
7	vsNavy	W30-27	-0.7	12	94	7.8	0	2	17	1	0.13
8	@Houston	W42-38	7.7	4	-1	-0.3	0	—	—	—	-0.95
9	vsTulane	W56-26	-5.7	10	112	11.2	1	3	50	0	0.68
10	@Tulsa	W41-14	-10.7	14	123	8.8	0	6	50	1	0.35
12	vsSMU	W66-45	-2.9	10	147	14.7	2	1	15	0	0.88
13	vsEast Carolina	W70-13	-14.0	10	122	12.2	2	1	14	0	1.10
14	@UCF	L55-62	14.1	15	109	7.3	1	3	14	0	0.25

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

18.0%

Passing plays

6.7%

Rushing plays

31.2%

Standard downs

19.7%

Passing downs

14.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.71
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / 0.31

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Memphis	3.1	0.460	—	56.6
2018	Memphis	7.3	0.590	+0.13	133.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.