#8D.J. Foster

WR·Arizona State·2014 20130.0 pts line value1st Round

D.J. Foster is a 2-year Versatile WR for Arizona State. D.J.'s 2013 season ranks in the 29th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 140 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So D.J. Foster's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Rushing

501 Rush yards6 Rush TD93 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

63 Receptions653 Rec yards4 Rec TD10.4 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns16 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs WR peers

Efficiency29
Volume41
Explosiveness22
Consistency57
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)29th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.26 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.92 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Stanford (SP+ 22).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
De'Michael Harris	Southern Miss	2019	117	0.130	0.7	15.2
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2017	161	0.150	0.0	24.2
Hyleck Foster	Marshall	2015	101	0.180	0.5	18.2
Davis Bryson	Kennesaw State	2024	97	0.200	0.0	19.4
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
2	vsSacramento State	W55-0	—	4	29	7.3	0	15	0.49
3	vsWisconsin	W32-30	22.4	7	69	9.9	0	21	0.41
4	@Stanford	L28-42	21.7	8	80	10.0	0	21	0.92
5	vsUSC	W62-41	22.5	3	80	26.7	1	74	0.12
6	vsNotre Dame	L34-37	13.2	9	71	7.9	0	22	0.52
7	vsColorado	W54-13	-0.7	1	5	5.0	0	5	-0.23
8	vsWashington	W53-24	20.5	4	56	14.0	0	26	0.42
10	@Washington State	W55-21	8.2	7	77	11.0	2	23	0.10
11	@Utah	W20-19	11.8	5	44	8.8	0	16	0.31
12	vsOregon State	W30-17	11.9	2	12	6.0	0	8	0.42
13	@UCLA	W38-33	20.0	2	1	0.5	0	1	-0.47
14	vsArizona	W58-21	14.6	2	26	13.0	0	16	0.09
15	vsStanford	L14-38	21.7	4	80	20.0	1	65	-0.17
1	vsTexas Tech	L23-37	14.0	5	23	4.6	0	11	0.54

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.3%

Passing plays

13.1%

Rushing plays

16.1%

Standard downs

15.6%

Passing downs

11.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.61
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.56 / 0.02

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Arizona State	0.0	0.020	—	1.7
2014	Arizona State	1.0	0.200	+0.18	34.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.