#20Brenden Knox

RB·Marshall·2020 20192.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Brenden Knox is a 2-year Featured Back for Marshall. Brenden's 2019 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 275 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brenden Knox's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1387 Rush yards11 Rush TD270 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

14 Receptions129 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency10
Volume91
Explosiveness42
Consistency70
Receiving30

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.24 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.54 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Ohio (SP+ 4).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsVMI	W56-17	—	10	43	4.3	2	—	—	—	0.32
2	@Boise State	L7-14	8.1	10	71	7.1	1	—	—	—	0.41
3	vsOhio	W33-31	3.7	16	133	8.3	1	—	—	—	0.54
5	vsCincinnati	L14-52	9.1	16	49	3.1	0	4	50	0	0.22
6	@Middle Tennessee	L13-24	-11.3	19	99	5.2	0	1	6	0	0.07
7	vsOld Dominion	W31-17	-24.4	24	104	4.3	1	2	18	0	0.17
8	@Florida Atlantic	W36-31	-0.6	23	220	9.6	2	2	6	0	0.49
9	vsWestern Kentucky	W26-23	1.7	19	84	4.4	0	—	—	—	0.06
10	@Rice	W20-7	-18.0	27	130	4.8	1	1	0	0	0.15
12	vsLouisiana Tech	W31-10	0.2	25	113	4.5	2	2	6	0	0.16
13	@Charlotte	L13-24	-6.3	22	92	4.2	0	1	40	0	0.06
14	vsFlorida International	W30-27	-7.0	33	146	4.4	1	1	3	0	-0.07
1	vsUCF	L25-48	19.1	26	103	4.0	0	—	—	—	-0.09

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

32.0%

Passing plays

5.3%

Rushing plays

52.9%

Standard downs

36.0%

Passing downs

23.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.15
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.08 / 0.16

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Marshall	2.1	0.240	—	64.3
2020	Marshall	1.7	0.260	+0.02	45.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.