@ Missouri State · Wk 3Win prob 60%Model -3.8Schedule & Results
PSUPenn StateL0-45✓Wk 2vs
MTSUMiddle TennesseeW28-26✓Wk 3@MOSTMissouri State-3.860%Wk 4vsGARDGardner-WebbWk 5@
JMUJames Madison-0.551%Wk 6vs
CCUCoastal Carolina-22.493%Wk 8vs
USASouth Alabama-15.784%Wk 9@
ODUOld Dominion-3.760%Wk 10@
GASOGeorgia Southern-9.672%Wk 11vs
APPApp State-15.984%Wk 12vs
GASTGeorgia State-20.991%Wk 13@
ULMUL Monroe-14.382%Team Leaders
Carlos Del Rio-WilsonPassing194 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT- Carlos Del Rio-WilsonRushing73 yds · 1 TD · 3.2 avg
Xayvion Turner-BradshawReceiving5 rec · 96 yds · 1 TD
Caleb Clark-GloverTackles20 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Marshall
All news →Middle Tennessee's run game is Marshall's one real problem
Rocco Becht produced nine of Penn State's eleven explosive plays
Penn State's roster left; Marshall's stayed
Georgia Won by 38 Without Doing Anything Out of the Ordinary
Roster · 105 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zion Turner | QB | SR | 6'1" | 212 | Miami, FL |
| 4 | Khalil Wilkins | QB | SO | 6'4" | 211 | Washington, DC |
| 7 | Carlos Del Rio-Wilson | QB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Atlanta, GA |
| 12 | Koi Fagan | QB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Martinsburg, WV |
| 17 | Dylan Barber | QB | FR | 5'11" | 194 | LaGrange, GA |
| 6 | Jo'Shon Barbie | RB | SR | 5'9" | 188 | Harvey, LA |
| 10 | Judah Price | RB | SO | 5'9" | 178 | Sophia, WV |
| 21 | TJ Lester | RB | SO | 5'9" | 205 | Milton, GA |
| 22 | Anthony Quinn Jr. | RB | FR | 6'0" | 196 | Fayetteville, NC |
| 0 | De'Andre Tamarez | WR | SR | 5'11" | 172 | Overtown, FL |
| 2 | Adrian Norton | WR | SR | 6'0" | 199 | Huber Heights, OH |
| 3 | Chris Culliver | WR | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Maiden, NC |
| 5 | Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw | WR | SR | 5'10" | 166 | Bluefield, VA |
| 8 | Sherone White Jr. | WR | SO | 5'8" | 165 | Pickerington, OH |
| 9 | Christian Hamilton | WR | JR | 5'11" | 186 | Harrisburg, NC |
| 11 | Drew Williams | WR | FR | 6'2" | 196 | Washington, DC |
| 13 | Brennan Chambers | WR | FR | 6'3" | 186 | Kinston, NC |
| 15 | Josiah McLaurin | WR | SO | 6'1" | 186 | Clinton, NC |
| 16 | Jalyn Abercrombie | WR | FR | 5'11" | 183 | Huntington, WV |
| 18 | Justin Haggerty | WR | JR | 5'9" | 169 | Welch, WV |
| 19 | Tony Martin | WR | JR | 5'10" | 174 | Pahokee, FL |
| 20 | Owen Sweeney | WR | SO | 6'3" | 204 | Roanoke, VA |
| 23 | Chase Massey | WR | SO | 6'1" | 175 | Winfield, WV |
| 24 | Aiden Burke | WR | FR | 6'0" | 182 | Matewan, WV |
| 84 | Nico Wiedmann | WR | SO | 6'2" | 194 | Stuttgart |
| 80 | Shawn Rouse | TE | JR | 6'3" | 244 | Milton, WV |
| 81 | Toby Payne | TE | SR | 6'4" | 237 | Poca, WV |
| 85 | Tracy Stephens | TE | JR | 6'4" | 242 | Columbia, SC |
| 86 | Brandon Hettwer | TE | FR | 6'4" | 234 | Charlotte, NC |
| 50 | Jae'Von White | OL | FR | 6'5" | 293 | Rockledge, FL |
| 52 | Rhett McGrew | OL | FR | 6'2" | 264 | Hurricane, WV |
| 53 | Mason Ramsey | OL | FR | 6'1" | 261 | Huntington, WV |
| 54 | Drake Lanham | OL | FR | 6'3" | 281 | Hurricane, WV |
| 55 | Holden Grieger | OL | SO | 6'7" | 315 | Elk Grove, CA |
| 56 | Andrew Dudley | OL | FR | 6'3" | 292 | Tempe, AZ |
| 57 | Logan Greer | OL | JR | 6'2" | 287 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 59 | Evan Ferguson | OL | SR | 6'2" | 297 | Huntington, WV |
| 61 | Da'Ron Parks | OL | FR | 6'5" | 340 | Nitro, WV |
| 62 | Marwan Diab | OL | FR | 6'3" | 286 | Burke, VA |
| 64 | Jaquez Joiner | OL | FR | 6'1" | 285 | Cocoa, FL |
| 65 | Parker Brault | OL | FR | 6'2" | 286 | Palatine, IL |
| 66 | Eli Kaufman | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Wadsworth, OH |
| 67 | Jack Laird | OL | FR | 6'6" | 314 | Columbia, SC |
| 69 | William Sandfoss | OL | FR | 6'5" | 297 | Newport, KY |
| 70 | Jalen Slappy | OL | SR | 6'4" | 312 | Columbus, OH |
| 73 | Robby Martin | OL | SO | 6'4" | 304 | Huntington, WV |
| 74 | Justyn Lyles | OL | FR | 6'3" | 245 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 76 | Tariq Montgomery | OL | SR | 6'6" | 312 | Akron, OH |
| 77 | Isaac Clary | OL | JR | 6'7" | 337 | Gallipolis, OH |
| 78 | Xavier Bausley | OL | SR | 6'4" | 318 | South Charleston, WV |
| 7 | Kelvon McBride | EDGE | JR | 6'2" | 242 | Mobile, AL |
| 21 | Keydel Painter | EDGE | JR | 6'3" | 243 | Norfolk, VA |
| 14 | Mickel Williams | DL | SR | 6'3" | 290 | Nocatee, FL |
| 24 | Jacarius Clayton | DL | SR | 6'5" | 241 | Tupelo, MS |
| 34 | Caden Turner | DL | FR | 6'3" | 202 | Ironton, OH |
| 44 | Kenyatta Hardge | DL | SO | 6'1" | 293 | Lexington, KY |
| 49 | Mekhi Lockhart | DL | FR | 6'4" | 296 | Winter Park, FL |
| 51 | Jaxson Cunningham | DL | SO | 5'11" | 225 | Winfield, WV |
| 52 | Mikailin Warren | DL | JR | 6'4" | 380 | Baltimore, MD |
| 55 | Cole Funderburk | DL | FR | 6'3" | 244 | Suwanee, GA |
| 58 | Braydin Ward | DL | JR | 6'6" | 258 | Montgomery, WV |
| 90 | B.J. Carter | DL | FR | 6'2" | 295 | Middleburg, FL |
| 92 | Cam Chmura | DL | SO | 6'3" | 298 | Wexford, PA |
| 95 | Donovan Garrett | DL | SO | 6'2" | 210 | Huntington, WV |
| 98 | Terry Nwabuisi-Ezeala | DL | FR | 6'1" | 324 | Munich |
| 99 | Simeon John | DL | JR | 6'2" | 281 | Dacula, GA |
| 97 | Nate Blanc | DT | FR | 6'2" | 290 | Quebec City, PQ |
| 5 | Javae Gilmore | LB | SR | 6'4" | 221 | Amite, LA |
| 6 | Jalen Marshall | LB | SR | 6'2" | 224 | Hiram, GA |
| 10 | Chason Clark | LB | JR | 6'2" | 207 | Starke, FL |
| 25 | Andrew Hamad | LB | SO | 5'11" | 209 | Fairfax, VA |
| 27 | Cannon Lewis | LB | SO | 6'2" | 230 | Barboursville, WV |
| 30 | Jaasai Simmons | LB | FR | 6'1" | 234 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 31 | Brysen Davies | LB | FR | 5'11" | 200 | Newnan, GA |
| 33 | Andre Parker | LB | FR | 5'11" | 202 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 40 | Ryan Ayers | LB | SR | 6'1" | 203 | Richmond, MI |
| 47 | EahJay McAdams | LB | FR | 6'1" | 216 | East Orange, NJ |
| 1 | Boogie Trotter | CB | SR | 5'10" | 185 | Nashville, TN |
| 8 | Eddie Pleasant III | CB | JR | 5'11" | 185 | Tampa, FL |
| 9 | Brayden Hall | CB | SR | 5'10" | 181 | Chicago, IL |
| 29 | Jason Haggerty | CB | JR | 5'10" | 173 | Welch, WV |
| 37 | Atley Cowan | CB | SO | 6'2" | 192 | Wheeling, WV |
| 0 | Caleb Clark-Glover | DB | JR | 5'11" | 187 | Springdale, OH |
| 2 | Charles McCartherens | DB | JR | 5'10" | 183 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 4 | Philipp Davis | DB | JR | 6'1" | 194 | Lake Wales, FL |
| 11 | Josh Pierre-Louis | DB | SR | 5'11" | 182 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 12 | Louikenzy Jules | DB | JR | 5'11" | 180 | Union, NJ |
| 18 | Daniel Harris | DB | JR | 6'4" | 180 | Melbourne, FL |
| 23 | Sammy Etienne | DB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Lakeland, FL |
| 39 | Dawson Hill | DB | FR | 6'2" | 184 | Nitro, WV |
| 3 | Terrente Hinton | S | SR | 6'2" | 203 | Mobile, AL |
| 15 | Tristan Lester | S | FR | 5'9" | 190 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 16 | Kendell Anderson | S | JR | 6'1" | 208 | Silver Spring, MD |
| 17 | Daytione Smith | S | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Highland Springs, VA |
| 19 | Zah Jackson | S | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Huntington, WV |
| 20 | Zeke Gunn | S | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Orlando, FL |
| 22 | Jaycee Houston | S | FR | 6'2" | 181 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 28 | Aumad Edwards | S | FR | 5'10" | 168 | Villa Hills, KY |
| 32 | Pete Schuh | S | SR | 5'10" | 187 | Montvale, NJ |
| 41 | Jorge Diaz Nicholas | PK | FR | 6'4" | 228 | Madrid |
| 90 | Samuel Guiden Krebs | PK | FR | 6'0" | 216 | Laois |
| 96 | Ty Powell | PK | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Thibodaux, LA |
| 91 | Cooper Heimbach | P | FR | 6'0" | 188 | Wheelersburg, OH |
| 35 | Riley Winkler | LS | FR | 6'4" | 204 | Detroit, MI |
| 43 | Chase Ortiz | LS | SO | 6'1" | 220 | Davie, FL |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Marshall is in year 2 under Tony Gibson. The strengths are offensive, led by 14th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 135th at keeping everything in front of them.
Marshall has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#14projected
- Offensefirst and second down#20projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#135projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.33#128
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.74 / 0.28
- Power / stuff (off)
- 70.0% / 28.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 11.1%#128
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 4.9% / 6.3%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.15#129 | 0.13#89 | 0.25#113 |
| Defense | 0.15#121 | 0.32#105 | 0.64#108 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play-0.033rd
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.306th
- Offense success rate36%15th
- Defense success rate allowed47%7th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs43%23rd
- Offense success — passing downs19%7th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs55%3rd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs30%40th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.07th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.265th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.816th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.728th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.01st
- Defense line yards allowed3.46th
- Offense highlight yards0.182nd
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.5264th
- Offense power success0.5823rd
- Defense power success allowed0.938th
- Offense stuff rate0.331st
- Defense stuff rate0.091st
Third down
- Third down conversion23%4th
- Third down distance faced7.526th
- Third down conversion allowed41%34th
- Third down distance forced7.140th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0323rd
- Net success rate — second half-0.176th
Drives
- Points per drive0.6110th
- Points per drive allowed3.028th
- Average starting field position2632nd
- Opponent starting field position3043rd
- Available yards gained30%16th
- Available yards allowed55%38th
- Scoring opportunities per drive70%25th
- Scoring opportunities allowed95%14th
- Points per scoring opportunity1.314th
- Points allowed per opportunity3.141st
- Three-and-out rate48%8th
- Three-and-outs forced27%60th
CORE
- CORE offense-2.523rd
- CORE defense5.311th
- CORE overall-7.815th
Roster
- Returning usage75%90th
- Returning EPA28595th
- Team talent composite59530th
- Recruiting class rank12311th
- Recruiting class points16211th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.464 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 23 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 48.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 50.1%
- Over expected
- -1.2
- Fourth down vs peers
- -6
- Fourth down vs the model
- -50
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Marshall is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Marshall in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 0.8 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 7.9 | -2.9 |
| 2024 | 10-3 | 8-1 | 77% | 8.4 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 6-7 | 3-5 | 46% | 6.2 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 10.4 | -1.4 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 2020 | 7-3 | 4-2 | 70% | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 6-2 | 62% | 6.3 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 9-4 | 6-2 | 69% | 8.5 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 8.1 | -0.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-1 so far, projected to finish 6.4-5.6. Wins the Sun Belt in 2.4%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
Win out and it is 31%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
down 0.8 points since preseason — lost 0-45 to Penn State against an expected margin of −27, so −18.2 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 31% where the average Sun Belt team is 36%.
- The Sun Belt takes 0.20 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.2% of seasons, having won their league in 96% of those.
Marshall’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk5at James Madison0.9
- wk10at Georgia Southern0.5
- wk9at Old Dominion0.5
- wk11vs App State0.4
- wk8vs South Alabama0.3
- wk6vs Coastal Carolina0.3
Who to root for
Games Marshall is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk12Wyoming over New Mexico0.2
- wk8Troy over UL Monroe0.2
- wk4Southern Miss over Tulane0.2
- wk12San Diego State over Boise State0.2
- wk3Middle Tennessee over Nevada0.2
- wk6Kent State over Western Michigan0.2
Sun Belt
East division · 0-0 in league play, projected 3.8-4.211 of 14 by title oddsThe Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so Marshall can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk5Marshall at James Madison10.0
- wk10Marshall at Georgia Southern4.9
- wk9Marshall at Old Dominion4.9
- wk11App State at Marshall4.3
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →
If not the playoff, then
Marshall is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- New Orleans Bowl9.4%
- Frisco Bowl8.9%
- Salute to Veterans Bowl8.7%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl8.6%
- Cure Bowl8.1%
- 68 Ventures Bowl7.6%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 17 have sent Marshall a player since 2010 — 41 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Marshall's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.