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Panthers at Lightning
NHL

Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-F·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Florida Panthers 5-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Johnson's goal at 10:56 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 56% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.1 to 2.8; shots on goal were FLA 32, TBL 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 0.8 goals below expected; Curtis McElhinney stopped 29 of 32 (.906). Three stars: 1. Curtis McElhinney (29 saves, .906), 2. Alex Killorn (1 G), 3. Yanni Gourde (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    C. McElhinney29 saves, .906
  2. ★★
    TBL
    A. Killorn1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    Y. Gourde1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA11111219332
TBLTBL1101638524

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(12)
    A. Barkov (23)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:28
  2. TBL
    Y. Gourde(11)
    B. Goodrow (6), B. Coleman (9)
    wristxG 0.33win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    4:00

2nd period

  1. TBL
    A. Killorn(9)
    E. Cernak (9), B. Point (17)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +19 pts
    1-2
    11:23
  2. FLA
    G. Forsling(2)PPG
    A. Wennberg (8), F. Vatrano (4)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +21 pts
    2-2
    18:24

3rd period

  1. TBL
    M. Joseph(8)
    R. Colton (2), P. Maroon (8)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +27 pts
    2-3
    5:22
  2. FLA
    P. Hornqvist(12)PPG
    K. Yandle (16), A. Barkov (24)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +23 pts
    3-3
    6:25
  3. TBL
    T. Johnson(7)PPG
    Y. Gourde (9), A. Cirelli (11)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +28 pts
    3-4
    10:56
  4. TBL
    B. Point(13)EN
    O. Palat (17), B. Coleman (10)
    wristxG 0.94win prob +5 pts
    3-5
    19:45

Penalties

FLA 14 PIM·TBL 14 PIM

1st

  • 7:34TBLBarclay Goodrow · Cross checkingdrawn by Aaron Ekblad2 min
  • 15:22FLAPatric Hornqvist · Slashingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min

2nd

  • 0:17FLAAaron Ekblad · Slashingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 5:42FLARyan Lomberg · Hookingdrawn by Jan Rutta2 min
  • 6:38TBLVictor Hedman · Holdingdrawn by Alexander Wennberg2 min
  • 16:28TBLBlake Coleman · Trippingdrawn by Keith Yandle2 min

3rd

  • 5:25TBLBarclay Goodrow · High stickingdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min
  • 9:02FLAAaron Ekblad · High stickingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 11:29FLAKeith Yandle · Roughingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min
  • 13:39FLAMacKenzie Weegar · Roughingdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min
  • 13:39FLAMacKenzie Weegar · Slashingdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min
  • 13:39TBLOndrej Palat · Roughingdrawn by MacKenzie Weegar2 min
  • 13:39TBLOndrej Palat · Roughingdrawn by MacKenzie Weegar2 min
  • 15:33TBLRoss Colton · Roughingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalFLA goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Tyler Johnson, 3rd 10:56 — TBL 56% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Point · Goal · xG 0.94Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.33M. Joseph · Goal · xG 0.23A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.19S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.17Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.16A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.15A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.14B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.14T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.13S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.13O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.11A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.11B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.11B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.10Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.09A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.07B. Point · Missed · xG 0.07J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.07R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.07T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.06R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.06V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.05O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.05T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.04J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.03J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL5 G · 4.1 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTBL
2.83 G
All situations
4 G4.1
1.41 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
1.12 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA44%56%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.81 – 3.14

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTBL
32
Shots on goal
24
40%
Faceoffs
60%
2/5
Power play
1/5
14
Penalty minutes
14
20
Hits
22
13
Blocked shots
10
1
Giveaways
0
0
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5A. EkbladD000-220.38024—27:04
16A. BarkovC022-120.201004124:06
52M. WeegarD000-110.03204—22:35
42G. ForslingD101020.05210—19:42
21A. WennbergC011-120.110103618:31
3K. YandleD011-210.06002—18:30
70P. HornqvistR101-240.51312—18:24
11J. HuberdeauL000-220.24010—17:50
6A. StralmanD000020.18010—17:12
23C. VerhaegheC101020.15010015:30
55N. AcciariC000-210.153304514:24
7R. GudasD000-110.04110—14:18
27E. LuostarinenC000000.001103812:36
19M. MarchmentL000+130.22300—12:31
91A. DuclairL000-230.18000—11:25
77F. VatranoR011000.00100—10:31
74O. TippettR000030.25000—09:45
94R. LombergL000-110.07302—06:42
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(L)23194.8263.19-0.8157:33

Season series

FLA leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).