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Lightning at Panthers
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
Florida Panthers
1
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-F·BB&T Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Florida Panthers 6-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mathieu Joseph's goal at 5:32 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 64% to 81%. Expected goals were close — TBL 2.3, FLA 2.5; shots on goal were TBL 28, FLA 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 33 of 34 (.971), 1.5 goals saved above expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 22 of 28 (.786), 3.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tyler Johnson (2 G), 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy (33 saves, .971), 3. Ondrej Palat (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    T. Johnson2 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy33 saves, .971
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    O. Palat1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0441727628
FLAFLA01101419134

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. TBL
    O. Palat(6)PPG
    V. Hedman (12), M. Sergachev (10)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    4:11
  2. TBL
    M. Joseph(5)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.19win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    5:32
  3. TBL
    T. Johnson(2)
    G. Smith (1)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +10 pts
    3-0
    12:58
  4. TBL
    T. Johnson(3)
    O. Palat (5), J. Rutta (3)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +3 pts
    4-0
    19:48

3rd period

  1. FLA
    F. Vatrano(3)
    B. Connolly (1), E. Luostarinen (3)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +1 pts
    4-1
    9:47
  2. TBL
    A. Volkov(1)
    G. Smith (2), M. Joseph (2)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +1 pts
    5-1
    10:58
  3. TBL
    B. Goodrow(3)
    Y. Gourde (3)
    wristxG 0.15
    6-1
    15:45

Penalties

TBL 19 PIM·FLA 17 PIM

1st

  • 4:46FLAEetu Luostarinen · Delaying game face off violation2 min
  • 9:33TBLVictor Hedman · High sticking double minordrawn by Aaron Ekblad4 min
  • 14:35FLAMacKenzie Weegar · Roughingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min
  • 14:35TBLAlex Killorn · Interferencedrawn by Owen Tippett2 min

2nd

  • 3:20FLAMarkus Nutivaara · Slashingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 8:14TBLJan Rutta · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Lomberg2 min
  • 17:08TBLPatrick Maroon · Holding the stickdrawn by Patric Hornqvist2 min

3rd

  • 1:33TBLBlake Coleman · Fightingdrawn by Radko Gudas5 min
  • 1:33FLARadko Gudas · Fightingdrawn by Blake Coleman5 min
  • 12:01TBLYanni Gourde · Roughingdrawn by Patric Hornqvist2 min
  • 12:01FLAPatric Hornqvist · Cross checkingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 12:01FLAPatric Hornqvist · Roughingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 15:10TBLGemel Smith · Roughingdrawn by Keith Yandle2 min
  • 15:10FLAKeith Yandle · Cross checkingdrawn by Gemel Smith2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalTBL goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: Mathieu Joseph, 2nd 5:32 — TBL 64% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.24A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.16F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.15J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.13A. Wennberg · On goal · xG 0.13C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.11B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.11A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.10P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.10A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.09A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.09A. Wennberg · On goal · xG 0.08A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.06P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.06O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.06A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.05A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.05A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.05A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.05A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.05E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.05C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.04K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.04A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.03P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.03C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.03F. Vatrano · Goal · xG 0.03P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.02P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.02A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.02M. Nutivaara · On goal · xG 0.02K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.02P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.02N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.02N. Acciari · Missed · xG 0.02C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.02K. Yandle · Missed · xG 0.02N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.02M. Nutivaara · On goal · xG 0.02F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.01M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.01R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.01N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.00P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA1 G · 2.5 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsFLA
2.36 G
All situations
1 G2.5
2.05 G
Even strength
1 G1.7
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL47%53%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.32 – 2.48

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsFLA
28
Shots on goal
34
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/3
Power play
0/4
19
Penalty minutes
17
25
Hits
36
12
Blocked shots
8
5
Giveaways
9
4
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27R. McDonaghD000+340.20310—22:52
98M. SergachevD011-100.00200—22:29
17A. KillornL000010.15412—20:49
77V. HedmanD011+210.02004—20:44
81E. CernakD000+120.05100—20:30
21B. PointC000+110.130104418:48
37Y. GourdeC011+210.041125318:33
18O. PalatL112+140.12110—18:26
19B. GoodrowC101+120.373005017:12
20B. ColemanL000-140.27205—14:20
14P. MaroonL000+110.04002—14:09
9T. JohnsonC202+120.231107813:18
44J. RuttaD011+300.00022—13:07
7M. JosephR112+110.19110—12:59
2L. SchennD000000.00110—10:16
92A. VolkovR101+230.51100—09:44
46G. SmithC022+200.002022509:20
52C. FooteD000010.02220—08:32
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)34331.9712.53+1.5360:00

Season series

FLA leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).