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Lightning at Panthers
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
Florida Panthers
▸5
FinalTV FS-F, SUN·BB&T Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-2. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. The Panthers led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alexander Wennberg's goal at 8:31 of the second period, which took the Panthers' chances from 71% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 4.0 to 1.2; shots on goal were TBL 21, FLA 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 85% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 0.6 goals below expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 19 of 21 (.905), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Aaron Ekblad (1 G, 1 A), 2. Alexander Wennberg (1 G, 1 A), 3. Brayden Point (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    A. Ekblad1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    A. Wennberg1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Point2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL061916221
FLAFLA18311110529

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    F. Vatrano(2)
    O. Tippett (2), E. Luostarinen (2)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:56

2nd period

  1. FLA
    A. Wennberg(3)
    J. Huberdeau (11), P. Hornqvist (5)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    8:31
  2. TBL
    B. Point(5)PPG
    O. Palat (4), V. Hedman (10)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    10:55
  3. FLA
    A. Ekblad(4)PPG
    K. Yandle (6), A. Barkov (8)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    1-3
    12:54
  4. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(7)
    A. Wennberg (3), A. Ekblad (5)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +8 pts
    1-4
    14:55

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(6)PPG
    V. Hedman (11), A. Vasilevskiy (1)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    0:54
  2. FLA
    B. Connolly(1)EN
    M. Weegar (4)
    snapxG 0.58win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    19:00

Penalties

TBL 13 PIM·FLA 13 PIM

1st

  • 16:39TBLBarclay Goodrow · Fightingdrawn by Ryan Lomberg5 min
  • 16:39FLARyan Lomberg · Fightingdrawn by Barclay Goodrow5 min

2nd

  • 10:28FLAserved by B. Connolly · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 12:14TBLMikhail Sergachev · Interferencedrawn by Alexander Wennberg2 min
  • 17:05TBLserved by P. Maroon · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 17:12FLAKeith Yandle · Hookingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 18:55FLAEetu Luostarinen · Hookingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min

3rd

  • 1:56TBLYanni Gourde · Holdingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min
  • 11:05TBLBlake Coleman · Trippingdrawn by Eetu Luostarinen2 min
  • 11:05FLAEetu Luostarinen · Embellishment2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalTBL goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Alexander Wennberg, 2nd 8:31 — FLA 71% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Connolly · Goal · xG 0.58O. Tippett · Missed · xG 0.46B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.38C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.20P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.19F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.17A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.16B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.15A. Wennberg · Goal · xG 0.14F. Vatrano · Goal · xG 0.13C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.12A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.11J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.11C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.10P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.08A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.08F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.07R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.06R. Lomberg · Missed · xG 0.06N. Acciari · Missed · xG 0.06J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.05E. Luostarinen · Missed · xG 0.05P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.05E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.04M. Nutivaara · On goal · xG 0.04A. Wennberg · Missed · xG 0.04C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.04M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.03P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · Goal · xG 0.03O. Tippett · Missed · xG 0.03K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.03R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.03A. Wennberg · Missed · xG 0.02O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.02P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.02R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.02R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.02C. Verhaeghe · Goal · xG 0.01P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.01
FLA5 G · 4.0 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsFLA
1.22 G
All situations
4 G4.0
0.60 G
Even strength
3 G3.3
0.52 G
Power play
1 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 70 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL15%85%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.20 – 3.27

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsFLA
21
Shots on goal
29
40%
Faceoffs
60%
2/3
Power play
1/3
13
Penalty minutes
13
39
Hits
44
11
Blocked shots
11
9
Giveaways
5
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD022-230.09220—27:29
21B. PointC202-240.322003023:05
98M. SergachevD000-220.14112—21:45
27R. McDonaghD000-100.05320—20:12
37Y. GourdeC000-200.002121820:08
18O. PalatL011-110.13100—19:24
71A. CirelliC000-110.033004719:08
17A. KillornL000-210.03200—17:35
81E. CernakD000-220.03300—17:06
44J. RuttaD000020.05100—16:13
7M. JosephR000-210.094103314:32
20B. ColemanL000-100.02402—13:19
9T. JohnsonC000-100.022106713:15
19B. GoodrowC000-120.1421510012:36
92A. VolkovR000010.02110—11:58
14P. MaroonL000010.00300—11:44
52C. FooteD000-100.04010—09:26
2L. SchennD000000.00300—06:48
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)28244.8573.40-0.6057:38

Season series

FLA leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).