Canadiens at Flames 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Montréal Canadiens

▸2

Calgary Flames

FinalTV SNW, TSN2·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Montréal Canadiens beat the Calgary Flames 2-1. The Canadiens scored first and never trailed. The Canadiens led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Toffoli's goal at 18:05 of the second period, which took the Canadiens' chances from 47% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Canadiens, 2.2 to 1.4; shots on goal were MTL 24, CGY 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Jake Allen stopped 21 of 22 (.955); Jacob Markstrom stopped 22 of 24 (.917), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tyler Toffoli (1 G), 2. Mark Giordano, 3. Shea Weber (1 G).

Three stars

★
T. Toffoli1 G
★★
M. Giordano
★★★
S. Weber1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	15	18	011	224
CGY	16	08	08	122

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

S. Weber(6)PPG
T. Tatar (20), J. Petry (22)
slapxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
1-0
9:59
E. Lindholm(15)PPG
J. Gaudreau (20), A. Mangiapane (13)
wristxG 0.09win prob +11 pts
1-1
12:17

2nd period

T. Toffoli(25)
J. Armia (7), N. Suzuki (20)
slapxG 0.06win prob +23 pts
2-1
18:05

Penalties

6 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

8:44Derek Ryan · Trippingdrawn by Jake Evans2 min
9:23Mark Giordano · Trippingdrawn by Nick Suzuki2 min
11:17Corey Perry · High stickingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min

2nd

19:17Ben Chiarot · Holdingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min

3rd

7:43Mark Giordano · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Petry2 min
11:41Tyler Toffoli · Trippingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CGY

Biggest swing: Tyler Toffoli, 2nd 18:05 — MTL 47% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.4 xG · 35 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.2 xG · 35 att CGY

1 G · 1.4 xG · 35 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.22 G
All situations: 1 G1.4; 1.11 G
Even strength: 0 G1.2; 0.31 G
Power play: 1 G0.2; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 70 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

49%51%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.39 – 1.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

24
Shots on goal: 22; 48%
Faceoffs: 52%; 1/3
Power play: 1/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 6; 11
Hits: 17; 10
Blocked shots: 14; 5
Giveaways: 13; 6
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Montréal Canadiens skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
6S. WeberD	1	0	1	0	2	0.10	1	0	0	—	23:10
8B. ChiarotD	0	0	0	0	1	0.39	3	1	2	—	22:26
26J. PetryD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.05	1	0	0	—	21:56
44J. EdmundsonD	0	0	0	+1	4	0.11	0	2	0	—	20:57
17J. AndersonR	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	2	0	0	—	18:15
24P. DanaultC	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	0	0	0	44	16:58
94C. PerryR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	2	—	16:17
32E. GustafssonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	15:49
22C. CaufieldR	0	0	0	0	4	0.24	0	0	0	—	15:40
14N. SuzukiC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.16	2	0	0	50	15:38
73T. ToffoliC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.62	0	0	2	0	15:33
15J. KotkaniemiC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	58	15:15
90T. TatarL	0	1	1	0	3	0.25	0	0	0	—	15:14
28J. MerrillD	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	1	0	—	13:46
71J. EvansC	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	0	1	0	43	13:34
62A. LehkonenL	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	2	0	—	12:32
40J. ArmiaR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	12:23
21E. StaalC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	50	09:44

Montréal Canadiens goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
34J. Allen(W)	22	21	1	.955	1.43	+0.43	59:53

Season series

CGY leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Montréal Canadiens at Calgary Flames

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score