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Flames at Canadiens
NHL

Calgary Flames at Montréal Canadiens

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
1
Montréal Canadiens
▸2
FinalTV ESPN+, SNW·Centre Bell

Recap

written from the game data

The Montréal Canadiens beat the Calgary Flames 2-1. The Canadiens scored first and never trailed. The Canadiens led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Toffoli's goal at 15:45 of the third period, which took the Canadiens' chances from 52% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.4 to 2.0; shots on goal were CGY 29, MTL 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 18 of 20 (.900); Jake Allen stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Joel Armia (1 A), 2. Jake Allen (28 saves, .966), 3. Tyler Toffoli (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MTL
    J. Armia1 A
  2. ★★
    MTL
    J. Allen28 saves, .966
  3. ★★★
    MTL
    T. Toffoli2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY0130818129
MTLMTL061816220

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

  1. MTL
    T. Toffoli(20)
    N. Suzuki (18), B. Kulak (6)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +18 pts
    0-1
    9:32

3rd period

  1. CGY
    E. Lindholm(12)
    J. Gaudreau (17), M. Tkachuk (20)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +27 pts
    1-1
    6:30
  2. MTL
    T. Toffoli(21)
    J. Armia (6), N. Suzuki (19)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +39 pts
    1-2
    15:45

Penalties

CGY 6 PIM·MTL 6 PIM

1st

  • 13:41MTLJoel Edmundson · Boardingdrawn by Dillon Dube2 min
  • 19:45CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Hookingdrawn by Joel Armia2 min

2nd

  • 2:27CGYJuuso Välimäki · Holdingdrawn by Josh Anderson2 min
  • 12:49MTLNick Suzuki · High stickingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min

3rd

  • 7:19MTLTyler Toffoli · Roughingdrawn by Mikael Backlund2 min
  • 7:19CGYMikael Backlund · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Toffoli2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MTL goalCGY goalFinal: MTL 100%

Biggest swing: Tyler Toffoli, 3rd 15:45 — MTL 52% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Suzuki · On goal · xG 0.24T. Toffoli · Goal · xG 0.18T. Toffoli · Goal · xG 0.17T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.15J. Armia · On goal · xG 0.15T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.14A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.12T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.12T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.09A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.08J. Anderson · On goal · xG 0.08T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.07S. Weber · On goal · xG 0.04J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.04T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.04P. Danault · Missed · xG 0.03J. Anderson · Missed · xG 0.03J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.02S. Weber · Missed · xG 0.02J. Edmundson · Missed · xG 0.02S. Weber · On goal · xG 0.02A. Romanov · Missed · xG 0.02J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.02S. Weber · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.01A. Romanov · Missed · xG 0.01B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.01B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.01A. Romanov · Missed · xG 0.01J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.01P. Danault · On goal · xG 0.01
MTL2 G · 2.0 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsMTL
2.41 G
All situations
2 G2.0
1.91 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY58%42%MTL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.37 – 1.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsMTL
29
Shots on goal
20
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/2
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
6
18
Hits
30
22
Blocked shots
22
10
Giveaways
30
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5M. GiordanoD000040.11020—25:00
4R. AnderssonD000040.25000—22:33
8C. TanevD000-100.00060—21:46
55N. HanifinD000-120.07010—20:27
19M. TkachukL011+100.21102—19:39
11M. BacklundC000-140.141125718:46
13J. GaudreauL011+130.42000—17:49
28E. LindholmC101+130.500304617:20
26M. StoneD000010.02120—16:03
17M. LucicL000-110.06200—15:20
20J. NordstromC000-100.10410014:32
23S. MonahanC000010.090006914:31
6J. VälimäkiD000020.07002—13:30
88A. MangiapaneL000000.00230—13:15
10D. RyanC000-110.031105013:06
29D. DubeC000010.06120011:37
24B. RitchieR000-100.07200—09:56
27J. LeivoL000-120.17300—09:53
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(L)20182.9001.98-0.0258:57

Season series

CGY leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).