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Montréal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV SNW, TSN2·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Montréal Canadiens 4-1. The Canadiens scored first; the Oilers answered. The Canadiens led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor McDavid's goal at 15:11 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 52% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.6 to 1.5; shots on goal were MTL 23, EDM 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Jake Allen stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.8 goals below expected; Mike Smith stopped 22 of 23 (.957), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (1 G, 2 A), 2. Jesse Puljujarvi (1 G, 1 A), 3. Ethan Bear (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    C. McDavid1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    EDM
    J. Puljujarvi1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    E. Bear1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL071808123
EDMEDM07010419436

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. MTL
    deflectedxG 0.10win prob +18 pts
    1-0
    6:46

3rd period

  1. EDM
    snapxG 0.03win prob +32 pts
    1-1
    10:49
  2. EDM
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.14win prob +38 pts
    1-2
    15:11
  3. EDM
    snapxG 0.13win prob +7 pts
    1-3
    17:37
  4. EDM
    wristxG 0.89win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    18:21

Penalties

MTL 8 PIM·EDM 4 PIM

1st

  • 15:15EDMDarnell Nurse · High stickingdrawn by Nick Suzuki2 min
  • 17:58MTLPhillip Danault · Interferencedrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

2nd

  • 9:09MTLTomas Tatar · Slashingdrawn by Tyson Barrie2 min
  • 13:43EDMLeon Draisaitl · High stickingdrawn by Josh Anderson2 min
  • 17:33MTLPaul Byron · Interferencedrawn by Caleb Jones2 min
  • 20:00MTLTyler Toffoli · Cross checkingdrawn by Gaetan Haas2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalMTL goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Connor McDavid, 3rd 15:11 — EDM 52% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Shore · Goal · xG 0.89D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.20J. Archibald · Missed · xG 0.16L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.16C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.14J. Archibald · On goal · xG 0.14J. Puljujarvi · Goal · xG 0.13J. Archibald · On goal · xG 0.12C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.12L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.11K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.10J. Nygard · On goal · xG 0.10A. Chiasson · Missed · xG 0.10A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.09D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.07L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.07A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.07C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.07K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.06C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.06D. Shore · On goal · xG 0.06D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.06E. Bear · On goal · xG 0.06J. Puljujarvi · Missed · xG 0.06D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.05C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.04L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.04C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.04E. Bear · Goal · xG 0.03Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.03J. Nygard · On goal · xG 0.02J. Archibald · Missed · xG 0.02T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.02D. Kahun · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Bear · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.01K. Russell · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.01A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.00D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM4 G · 3.6 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsEDM
1.51 G
All situations
3 G3.6
1.41 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL29%71%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.53 – 2.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsEDM
23
Shots on goal
36
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/2
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
28
Hits
39
12
Blocked shots
14
11
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6S. WeberD000-120.04020—23:16
8B. ChiarotD000-120.05110—23:11
26J. PetryD000-300.00410—20:48
44J. EdmundsonD000-310.03410—20:33
24P. DanaultC000-220.120125919:24
73T. ToffoliC000030.0701210018:27
14N. SuzukiC000-100.002004215:55
62A. LehkonenL000+110.13400—15:47
90T. TatarL000-220.25212—15:10
27A. RomanovD000+110.02210—14:14
40J. ArmiaR000010.14100—14:10
77B. KulakD000+110.02030—13:49
41P. ByronL000-110.09402—13:39
17J. AndersonR000-320.18000—13:36
15J. KotkaniemiC000-200.093004013:34
92J. DrouinL000-120.09000—13:08
94C. PerryR011000.02100—12:31
21E. StaalC101+120.200002511:06
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34J. Allen(L)28253.8932.24-0.7639:42
31C. Price7701.0000.48+0.4820:00

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).