Oilers at Canadiens 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Edmonton Oilers

▸3

Montréal Canadiens

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Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Montréal Canadiens 3-0. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Darnell Nurse's goal at 1:27 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 63% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 2.9 to 2.3; shots on goal were EDM 31, MTL 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 38 of 38 (1.000), 2.3 goals saved above expected; Jake Allen stopped 28 of 31 (.903). Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (1 A), 2. Mike Smith (38 saves, 1.000), 3. Darnell Nurse (1 G).

Three stars

★
C. McDavid1 A
★★
M. Smith38 saves, 1.000
★★★
D. Nurse1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	19	112	110	331
MTL	011	013	014	038

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

J. Khaira(2)
J. Archibald (2), T. Ennis (2)
wristxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
1-0
8:27

2nd period

D. Nurse(6)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
2-0
1:27

3rd period

T. Barrie(3)PPG
L. Draisaitl (18), C. McDavid (19)
slapxG 0.04win prob +7 pts
3-0
4:44

Penalties

6 PIM·

8 PIM

2nd

12:50Ben Chiarot · Trippingdrawn by Dominik Kahun2 min

3rd

0:55Phillip Danault · Interferencedrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
4:10Josh Anderson · Roughingdrawn by William Lagesson2 min
4:10William Lagesson · Holdingdrawn by Josh Anderson2 min
4:10Josh Anderson · Roughingdrawn by William Lagesson2 min
14:12Evan Bouchard · Interferencedrawn by Jake Evans2 min
20:00Darnell Nurse · Slashingdrawn by Joel Armia2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MTL

Biggest swing: Darnell Nurse, 2nd 1:27 — EDM 63% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.3 xG · 53 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.9 xG · 46 att MTL

0 G · 2.3 xG · 53 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.93 G
All situations: 0 G2.3; 2.02 G
Even strength: 0 G2.2; 0.91 G
Power play: 0 G0.1; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

60%40%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.89 – 2.33

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

31
Shots on goal: 38; 55%
Faceoffs: 45%; 1/3
Power play: 0/1; 6
Penalty minutes: 8; 26
Hits: 44; 14
Blocked shots: 12; 15
Giveaways: 18; 2
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Edmonton Oilers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
25D. NurseD	1	0	1	+1	1	0.14	3	2	2	—	24:38
22T. BarrieD	1	0	1	+1	4	0.24	0	0	0	—	21:59
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.19	0	2	0	0	19:13
6A. LarssonD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.10	3	2	0	—	19:03
97C. McDavidC	0	1	1	+1	7	0.62	0	0	0	33	18:45
75E. BouchardD	0	0	0	0	2	0.21	2	0	2	—	18:39
84W. LagessonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.04	1	2	2	—	17:08
29L. DraisaitlC	0	1	1	0	1	0.16	1	0	0	63	17:06
56K. YamamotoR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	3	0	—	16:49
20S. KoekkoekD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	1	0	—	15:39
18J. NealL	0	0	0	+1	2	0.10	1	0	0	—	15:27
21D. KahunC	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	0	0	0	50	14:40
8K. TurrisC	0	0	0	0	1	0.25	0	1	0	75	14:17
39A. ChiassonR	0	0	0	0	1	0.20	0	0	0	—	13:46
15J. ArchibaldR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.05	3	0	0	—	13:28
16J. KhairaL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.09	6	0	0	60	13:28
63T. EnnisR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.28	2	1	0	100	12:58
14D. ShoreC	0	0	0	0	0	0.12	4	0	0	67	11:29

Edmonton Oilers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
41M. Smith(W)	38	38	0	1.000	2.34	+2.34	60:00

Season series

MTL leads 5-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Edmonton Oilers at Montréal Canadiens

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score