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Edmonton Oilers at Montréal Canadiens

Final/OTTV ESPN+, SNW·Centre Bell

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Montréal Canadiens 4-3 in overtime, Connor McDavid scoring at 2:42. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Oilers led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor McDavid's goal at 2:42 of overtime, which took the Oilers' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — EDM 1.8, MTL 1.7; shots on goal were EDM 35, MTL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Mikko Koskinen stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 1.3 goals below expected; Jake Allen stopped 31 of 35 (.886), 2.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Evans (1 G, 2 A), 2. Paul Byron (1 G, 1 A), 3. Artturi Lehkonen (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MTL
    J. Evans1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    MTL
    P. Byron1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    MTL
    A. Lehkonen1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
EDMEDM2131130712435
MTLMTL191911000328

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. MTL
    wristxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    9:32
  2. EDM
    wristxG 0.17win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    9:52
  3. EDM
    wristxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    13:29

2nd period

  1. MTL
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    5:56
  2. EDM
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +19 pts
    3-2
    9:26

3rd period

  1. MTL
    wristxG 0.01win prob +36 pts
    3-3
    13:04

Overtime

  1. EDM
    wristxG 0.11win prob +51 pts
    4-3
    2:42

Penalties

EDM 4 PIM·MTL 2 PIM

1st

  • 3:38EDMKailer Yamamoto · Trippingdrawn by Brett Kulak2 min
  • 17:25MTLJoel Armia · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 3:43EDMJames Neal · Trippingdrawn by Alexander Romanov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MTL goalEDM goalFinal: MTL 0%

Biggest swing: Connor McDavid, OT 2:42 — EDM 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.15C. Caufield · On goal · xG 0.15J. Anderson · Missed · xG 0.13P. Byron · On goal · xG 0.12J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.12J. Evans · Goal · xG 0.12E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.12E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.11J. Anderson · On goal · xG 0.08J. Anderson · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.06P. Byron · Goal · xG 0.06T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.04J. Evans · Missed · xG 0.03A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.03C. Caufield · Missed · xG 0.02J. Edmundson · Missed · xG 0.02N. Suzuki · On goal · xG 0.02J. Armia · On goal · xG 0.02B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.02B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.02J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.02C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.02N. Suzuki · Missed · xG 0.02J. Edmundson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Evans · On goal · xG 0.01C. Caufield · On goal · xG 0.01B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.01T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.01A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.01T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.01T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.01J. Armia · On goal · xG 0.01J. Armia · On goal · xG 0.01B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.01J. Anderson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Armia · On goal · xG 0.00C. Caufield · Missed · xG 0.00J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.00
MTL3 G · 1.7 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsMTL
1.84 G
All situations
3 G1.7
1.64 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM52%48%MTL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.77 – 1.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsMTL
35
Shots on goal
28
63%
Faceoffs
37%
0/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
24
Hits
21
16
Blocked shots
13
15
Giveaways
17
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25D. NurseD000020.03020—26:22
6A. LarssonD000+220.01100—22:13
29L. DraisaitlC022+120.191007521:07
22T. BarrieD000-150.11130—19:51
70D. KulikovD000+220.14110—19:12
97C. McDavidC112-130.271004519:07
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC101+130.19010018:13
74E. BearD000-150.09230—17:32
16J. KhairaL000000.014205516:29
82C. JonesD011-110.08110—16:10
56K. YamamotoR011+110.07102—15:45
15J. ArchibaldR000010.00300—15:34
13J. PuljujarviR000-200.00110—14:43
14D. ShoreC000000.0032010014:37
21D. KahunC101-120.20100012:45
18J. NealL101+150.25002—11:52
39A. ChiassonR011+110.12300—11:26
71R. McLeodC011+100.000007511:08
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
19M. Koskinen(W)28253.8931.68-1.3262:42

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).