Skip to content
Lightning at Predators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
Nashville Predators
0
FinalTV ESPN+, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Nashville Predators 3-0. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Erik Cernak's goal at 14:04 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 68% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.1 to 3.5; shots on goal were TBL 34, NSH 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 36 of 36 (1.000), 3.5 goals saved above expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 31 of 33 (.939). Three stars: 1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (36 saves, 1.000), 2. Ross Colton (1 G), 3. Pekka Rinne (31 saves, .939).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy36 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    TBL
    R. Colton1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    P. Rinne31 saves, .939

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL15115114334
NSHNSH01808010036

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    R. Colton(7)
    Y. Gourde (15), M. Sergachev (21)
    backhandxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    6:45

2nd period

  1. TBL
    E. Cernak(2)
    O. Palat (23), B. Point (18)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    14:04

3rd period

  1. TBL
    Y. Gourde(14)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.84
    3-0
    19:14

Penalties

TBL 8 PIM·NSH 16 PIM

1st

  • 17:25TBLTyler Johnson · Interferencedrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min

2nd

  • 16:08TBLVictor Hedman · Holdingdrawn by Rem Pitlick2 min

3rd

  • 5:02NSHMattias Ekholm · Holding the stickdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 7:42TBLVictor Hedman · Holdingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min
  • 9:19NSHNick Cousins · Trippingdrawn by Barclay Goodrow2 min
  • 9:56NSHColton Sissons · Slashingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min
  • 19:37NSHMichael McCarron · Match penatly 10 minutesdrawn by Yanni Gourde10 min
  • 19:37TBLBarclay Goodrow · Roughingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalTBL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Erik Cernak, 2nd 14:04 — TBL 68% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.24R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.19M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.17V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.17V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.16R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.14R. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.14R. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.12R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.12R. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.11C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.11R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.11V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.11L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.10M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.09E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.09M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.09L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.08R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.07E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.07V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.07C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.05E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.05R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.05R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.04L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.04V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.04M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.04R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.03B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.02R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.02B. Harpur · On goal · xG 0.02R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.01R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.01B. Harpur · On goal · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.01B. Harpur · On goal · xG 0.01J. Davies · Missed · xG 0.01B. Harpur · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH0 G · 3.5 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNSH
4.12 G
All situations
0 G3.5
1.32 G
Even strength
0 G2.6
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL28%72%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.11 – 3.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNSH
34
Shots on goal
36
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/4
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
16
12
Hits
25
9
Blocked shots
7
7
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000+140.48004—25:43
27R. McDonaghD000+130.10310—23:07
81E. CernakD101+120.06110—22:44
98M. SergachevD011+220.19020—21:37
20B. ColemanL000+110.01200—19:43
21B. PointC011+100.060005618:39
18O. PalatL011+240.66200—18:04
19B. GoodrowC000030.201225718:02
71A. CirelliC000+110.630004317:47
37Y. GourdeC112+230.901103317:44
17A. KillornL000040.25000—17:26
52C. FooteD000020.08100—15:08
9T. JohnsonC000020.0700210013:27
7M. JosephR000000.00000—13:07
14P. MaroonL000+120.20100—12:23
56B. ThomasD000+100.02020—10:07
79R. ColtonC101+110.170004009:12
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)363601.0003.45+3.4560:00

Season series

TBL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).