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Lightning at Predators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
Nashville Predators
1
FinalTV NBCSN, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Nashville Predators 6-1. The Predators scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mathieu Joseph's goal at 14:03 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 61% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.0 to 2.3; shots on goal were TBL 30, NSH 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Juuse Saros stopped 24 of 30 (.800), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mikhail Sergachev (3 A), 2. Steven Stamkos (2 G, 1 A), 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy (32 saves, .970).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    M. Sergachev3 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy32 saves, .970

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL31101039630
NSHNSH111010012133

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    R. Grimaldi(2)
    S. Malone (1), C. Jarnkrok (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:43
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(6)
    B. Point (8), M. Sergachev (7)
    wristxG 0.51win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    11:28
  3. TBL
    O. Palat(5)PPG
    S. Stamkos (7), B. Point (9)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +10 pts
    2-1
    12:31
  4. TBL
    M. Joseph(3)
    M. Sergachev (8), P. Maroon (2)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    14:03

3rd period

  1. TBL
    Y. Gourde(4)
    M. Sergachev (9), V. Hedman (8)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +6 pts
    4-1
    6:40
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(7)PPG
    B. Point (10), O. Palat (3)
    wristxG 0.11
    5-1
    14:34
  3. TBL
    M. Joseph(4)PPG
    V. Hedman (9), A. Volkov (2)
    deflectedxG 0.08
    6-1
    16:20

Penalties

TBL 10 PIM·NSH 22 PIM

1st

  • 1:50TBLRyan McDonagh · Boardingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min
  • 4:51NSHRyan Ellis · Interferencedrawn by Alexander Volkov2 min
  • 8:37TBLJan Rutta · Cross checkingdrawn by Ryan Ellis2 min
  • 9:21TBLErik Cernak · Roughingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min
  • 9:21NSHMichael McCarron · Cross checkingdrawn by Barclay Goodrow2 min
  • 9:21NSHMichael McCarron · Roughingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 11:51NSHSean Malone · Hookingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 17:24TBLMathieu Joseph · Interferencedrawn by Colton Sissons2 min

2nd

  • 6:06TBLAlex Killorn · Trippingdrawn by Dante Fabbro2 min

3rd

  • 12:41NSHRyan Ellis · High sticking double minordrawn by Brayden Point4 min
  • 14:34NSHCalle Jarnkrok · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalTBL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Mathieu Joseph, 1st 14:03 — TBL 61% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.25M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.15R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.14S. Malone · On goal · xG 0.12Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.12F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.12V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.09L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.08R. Grimaldi · Goal · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.08D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.07M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.06R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.06M. Olivier · Missed · xG 0.06R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.06R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.05V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.05R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.05M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.03R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.03M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.03R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.02C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.01C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.00M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH1 G · 2.3 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNSH
3.06 G
All situations
1 G2.3
1.93 G
Even strength
1 G1.9
1.13 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL61%39%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.89 – 2.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNSH
30
Shots on goal
33
49%
Faceoffs
51%
3/5
Power play
0/4
10
Penalty minutes
22
24
Hits
20
15
Blocked shots
11
6
Giveaways
5
6
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD022+120.06040—22:41
27R. McDonaghD000020.02132—22:24
81E. CernakD000010.02022—20:45
98M. SergachevD033+340.13200—20:01
71A. CirelliC000010.230003817:58
37Y. GourdeC101+130.230006517:26
19B. GoodrowC000+100.014006717:15
20B. ColemanL000+100.00300—16:59
17A. KillornL000030.30002—16:21
91S. StamkosC213040.811004215:28
44J. RuttaD000000.03012—14:43
21B. PointC033030.55000014:35
18O. PalatL112010.17310—13:12
14P. MaroonL011+120.09200—13:00
2L. SchennD000000.00320—12:32
9T. JohnsonC000000.002003312:08
7M. JosephR202+130.212026712:04
92A. VolkovR011+110.09120—11:53
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)33321.9702.33+1.3360:00

Season series

TBL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).