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Predators at Lightning
NHL

Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸4
Tampa Bay Lightning
1
FinalTV NHLN, FS-TN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-1. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Eeli Tolvanen's goal at 3:58 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 47% to 64%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.2 to 2.6; shots on goal were NSH 26, TBL 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 38 of 39 (.974), 2.2 goals saved above expected; Curtis McElhinney stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Calle Jarnkrok (1 G, 3 A), 2. Pekka Rinne (38 saves, .974), 3. Yanni Gourde (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    C. Jarnkrok1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    P. Rinne38 saves, .974
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    Y. Gourde1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH0103917426
TBLTBL010013116139

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. NSH
    E. Tolvanen(6)
    R. Johansen (7), C. Jarnkrok (4)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    1-0
    3:58
  2. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(4)PPG
    E. Haula (6), C. Jarnkrok (5)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    9:14
  3. NSH
    C. Jarnkrok(7)SHG
    M. Ekholm (7), P. Rinne (1)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    3-0
    11:46

3rd period

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(13)
    Y. Gourde (8), A. Killorn (11)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +4 pts
    3-1
    10:03
  2. NSH
    M. Ekholm(5)EN
    D. Fabbro (8), C. Jarnkrok (6)
    wristxG 0.46
    4-1
    19:40

Penalties

NSH 16 PIM·TBL 14 PIM

1st

  • 2:56TBLPatrick Maroon · Fightingdrawn by Ben Harpur5 min
  • 2:56NSHBen Harpur · Fightingdrawn by Patrick Maroon5 min
  • 3:51TBLErik Cernak · Holdingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min
  • 12:45NSHRyan Johansen · Holdingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

2nd

  • 0:22NSHColton Sissons · Hookingdrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min
  • 7:30TBLYanni Gourde · Holdingdrawn by Mathieu Olivier2 min
  • 11:03NSHserved by N. Cousins · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 0:03TBLPatrick Maroon · Fightingdrawn by Mathieu Olivier5 min
  • 0:03NSHMathieu Olivier · Fightingdrawn by Patrick Maroon5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalNSH goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Eeli Tolvanen, 2nd 3:58 — NSH 47% → 64%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Point · On goal · xG 0.31S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.23B. Point · Missed · xG 0.17B. Point · On goal · xG 0.14B. Point · On goal · xG 0.13V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.12V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.11O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.11O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.11A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.11P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.10A. Volkov · On goal · xG 0.10T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.10A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.09J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.09O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.08O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.07Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.07B. Point · On goal · xG 0.06O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.06R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.06M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.06V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.05R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.05Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.04Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.04S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.03E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.02J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.02J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL1 G · 3.2 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsTBL
2.63 G
All situations
1 G3.2
1.61 G
Even strength
1 G2.9
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH32%68%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.13 – 3.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsTBL
26
Shots on goal
39
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/2
Power play
0/3
16
Penalty minutes
14
17
Hits
20
12
Blocked shots
8
1
Giveaways
2
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
14M. EkholmD112+130.61100—24:41
17B. HarpurD000010.01005—20:37
45A. CarrierD000+110.05130—20:02
9F. ForsbergL000020.21200—18:08
57D. FabbroD011020.11000—17:32
92R. JohansenC011+220.281025817:16
5M. BenningD000+100.00200—17:08
64M. GranlundC000+100.001003616:35
38J. DaviesD000+110.03200—16:11
28E. TolvanenR101+120.09120—16:09
56E. HaulaL011010.041004415:40
10C. SissonsC000020.370225014:40
19C. JarnkrokC134+320.19010014:36
13Y. TreninC000010.01310013:52
33V. ArvidssonL101030.30030—13:49
21N. CousinsC000-100.0010010013:10
23R. GrimaldiR000-110.01000—12:51
25M. OlivierR000020.28105—11:06
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(W)39381.9743.16+2.1660:00

Season series

TBL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).