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Predators at Lightning
NHL

Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
FinalTV FS-TN, SUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Nashville Predators 6-3. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mathieu Joseph's goal at 18:35 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 68% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.0 to 2.7; shots on goal were NSH 31, TBL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 22 of 27 (.815), 2.9 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 31 (.903). Three stars: 1. Erik Cernak (2 A), 2. Tyler Johnson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Blake Coleman (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    E. Cernak2 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    T. Johnson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Coleman1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH0917215331
TBLTBL21121027628

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    T. Johnson(6)
    E. Cernak (7), B. Coleman (7)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:55
  2. TBL
    M. Joseph(6)
    E. Cernak (8), S. Stamkos (13)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    18:35

2nd period

  1. TBL
    A. Killorn(7)PPG
    O. Palat (14), V. Hedman (21)
    tip-inxG 0.19win prob +7 pts
    0-3
    2:24
  2. NSH
    Y. Trenin(2)
    V. Arvidsson (10)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +8 pts
    1-3
    12:02
  3. TBL
    B. Point(10)
    M. Sergachev (17)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +7 pts
    1-4
    18:48

3rd period

  1. NSH
    A. Carrier(1)
    Y. Trenin (2), M. Olivier (2)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    3:17
  2. NSH
    E. Haula(3)PPG
    C. Jarnkrok (3), N. Cousins (6)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    3-4
    5:03
  3. TBL
    B. Coleman(6)
    B. Goodrow (5), T. Johnson (8)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    3-5
    10:02
  4. TBL
    A. Cirelli(8)EN
    R. McDonagh (6), O. Palat (15)
    wristxG 0.43win prob +1 pts
    3-6
    18:26

Penalties

NSH 2 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

2nd

  • 1:18NSHEeli Tolvanen · Slashingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min
  • 15:13TBLErik Cernak · Trippingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min

3rd

  • 3:38TBLTyler Johnson · Boardingdrawn by Matt Benning2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalNSH goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Mathieu Joseph, 1st 18:35 — TBL 68% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.49A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.43A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.19B. Point · On goal · xG 0.18B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.14E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.13T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.10A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.10B. Goodrow · Missed · xG 0.09M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.09B. Coleman · Goal · xG 0.08T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.07Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.07B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.06O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.06B. Point · Goal · xG 0.05B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.05O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.04O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.04E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.03M. Joseph · Goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.02C. Foote · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.01
TBL6 G · 3.0 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsTBL
2.73 G
All situations
5 G3.0
2.42 G
Even strength
4 G1.4
0.31 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH62%38%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.72 – 2.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsTBL
31
Shots on goal
28
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/2
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
21
11
Blocked shots
5
0
Giveaways
1
3
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
14M. EkholmD000-110.03010—24:23
45A. CarrierD101-250.42110—21:42
38J. DaviesD000020.21310—18:42
64M. GranlundC000-120.081106717:55
17B. HarpurD000-230.09120—17:36
92R. JohansenC000-300.170003117:28
28E. TolvanenR000010.09002—17:25
72F. AllardD000-200.00010—16:59
56E. HaulaL101-110.143105416:24
21N. CousinsC011-130.15100016:06
33V. ArvidssonL011-220.29000—16:06
19C. JarnkrokC011-110.05110016:05
5M. BenningD000+100.03100—16:05
9F. ForsbergL000-330.18100—15:39
23R. GrimaldiR000-120.36000—13:49
13Y. TreninC112+240.41100013:04
10C. SissonsC000010.032005612:59
25M. OlivierR011+100.00120—12:01
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(L)27225.8152.08-2.9258:26

Season series

TBL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).