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Predators at Lightning
NHL

Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
FinalTV FS-TN, SUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Nashville Predators 4-3. The Predators scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cal Foote's goal at 6:41 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.6 to 2.3; shots on goal were NSH 26, TBL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 1.4 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.7 goals below expected.

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH1601129326
TBLTBL08415010433

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    R. Ellis(1)PPG
    N. Cousins (3), F. Forsberg (1)
    wristxG 0.28win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    17:55

2nd period

  1. TBL
    T. Johnson(1)PPG
    A. Cirelli (4), M. Sergachev (2)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    3:33
  2. TBL
    C. Foote(1)
    M. Sergachev (3), B. Point (4)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    6:41
  3. TBL
    V. Hedman(2)
    A. Cirelli (5), A. Killorn (3)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    8:05
  4. TBL
    S. Stamkos(3)PPG
    V. Hedman (5), B. Point (5)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +5 pts
    1-4
    17:27

3rd period

  1. NSH
    M. Olivier(1)PPG
    R. Johansen (3), R. Josi (2)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +4 pts
    2-4
    7:00
  2. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(2)
    M. Granlund (2), F. Forsberg (2)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +6 pts
    3-4
    18:26

Penalties

NSH 34 PIM·TBL 30 PIM

1st

  • 8:10NSHColton Sissons · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Johnson2 min
  • 11:01TBLSteven Stamkos · Slashingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 12:16TBLAnthony Cirelli · Slashingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 17:47TBLRyan McDonagh · Interferencedrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min
  • 19:21NSHDante Fabbro · Roughingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min

2nd

  • 1:41NSHMark Borowiecki · Hookingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 12:26TBLMikhail Sergachev · Cross checkingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min
  • 17:14NSHViktor Arvidsson · Holdingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 17:33TBLPatrick Maroon · Fightingdrawn by Mark Borowiecki5 min
  • 17:33NSHMark Borowiecki · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Patrick Maroon2 min
  • 17:33NSHMark Borowiecki · Fightingdrawn by Patrick Maroon5 min
  • 19:20NSHMatt Benning · Roughingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min

3rd

  • 5:11TBLBarclay Goodrow · High stickingdrawn by Ryan Ellis2 min
  • 10:19NSHDante Fabbro · Fightingdrawn by Yanni Gourde5 min
  • 10:19TBLYanni Gourde · Fightingdrawn by Dante Fabbro5 min
  • 13:27NSHMathieu Olivier · Roughingdrawn by Cal Foote2 min
  • 15:33TBLPatrick Maroon · Misconductdrawn by Mark Borowiecki10 min
  • 15:33NSHMark Borowiecki · Misconductdrawn by Patrick Maroon10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalNSH goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Cal Foote, 2nd 6:41 — TBL 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.24A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.17B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.16O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.16S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.14Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.12V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.11V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.10B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.10P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.09B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.08A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · On goal · xG 0.08O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · On goal · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.06B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.06B. Point · On goal · xG 0.05V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.04S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.04S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.04A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.04A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.04B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02C. Foote · Goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02C. Foote · Missed · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.02B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.01A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL4 G · 2.6 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsTBL
2.33 G
All situations
4 G2.6
1.21 G
Even strength
2 G0.8
1.12 G
Power play
2 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH45%55%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.30 – 2.58

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsTBL
26
Shots on goal
33
38%
Faceoffs
62%
2/5
Power play
2/7
34
Penalty minutes
30
17
Hits
21
11
Blocked shots
11
0
Giveaways
2
0
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. EllisD101+120.29010—24:57
14M. EkholmD000020.16000—24:14
59R. JosiD011-110.02210—23:09
64M. GranlundC011010.130103320:08
57D. FabbroD000-110.08107—19:33
56E. HaulaL000-100.001102217:56
9F. ForsbergL022+160.45200—17:45
11L. KuninC000010.14200016:09
10C. SissonsC000000.000223316:00
92R. JohansenC011+140.450004616:00
21N. CousinsC011-100.00110014:51
95M. DucheneC000-110.160003014:30
5M. BenningD000-110.04112—13:50
33V. ArvidssonL101+110.09022—13:04
13Y. TreninC000-110.12200010:59
25M. OlivierR101-130.1821210010:08
90M. BorowieckiD000010.023019—09:34
15B. RichardsonR000000.000005008:13
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(L)33294.8792.59-1.4158:16

Season series

TBL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).