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Lightning at Predators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Nashville Predators
1
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Nashville Predators 4-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Cirelli's goal at 13:02 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 68% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.5 to 1.7; shots on goal were TBL 35, NSH 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Curtis McElhinney stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 31 of 33 (.939). Three stars: 1. Anthony Cirelli (2 G), 2. Curtis McElhinney (23 saves, .958), 3. Pekka Rinne (31 saves, .939).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Cirelli2 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    C. McElhinney23 saves, .958
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    P. Rinne31 saves, .939

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL11711028435
NSHNSH0606112124

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    A. Cirelli(3)
    A. Killorn (5), E. Cernak (2)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    9:07

2nd period

  1. TBL
    A. Cirelli(4)PPG
    M. Sergachev (6), P. Maroon (1)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    13:02

3rd period

  1. NSH
    D. Fabbro(1)PPG
    M. Duchene (4), M. Granlund (4)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    2-1
    11:08
  2. TBL
    B. Coleman(3)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.57win prob +7 pts
    3-1
    18:22
  3. TBL
    S. Stamkos(5)EN
    B. Point (7)
    wristxG 0.90
    4-1
    19:58

Penalties

TBL 15 PIM·NSH 13 PIM

1st

  • 2:04TBLLuke Schenn · Fightingdrawn by Mathieu Olivier5 min
  • 2:04NSHMathieu Olivier · Fightingdrawn by Luke Schenn5 min
  • 14:50NSHCalle Jarnkrok · Trippingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min

2nd

  • 1:45TBLVictor Hedman · Trippingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min
  • 11:05NSHMatt Benning · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 17:38TBLVictor Hedman · Roughingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min
  • 17:38TBLSteven Stamkos · Roughingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min
  • 17:38NSHNick Cousins · Roughingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 19:23NSHCalle Jarnkrok · Interferencedrawn by Alex Killorn2 min

3rd

  • 5:59TBLAlex Killorn · Slashingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 9:55TBLAnthony Cirelli · Trippingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalTBL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli, 2nd 13:02 — TBL 68% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.21M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.18F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.13E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.10N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.08M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.08E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.07M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.07M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.06D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05D. Fabbro · Goal · xG 0.05Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.03E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.01M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.01J. Tinordi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01
NSH1 G · 1.7 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNSH
3.52 G
All situations
1 G1.7
1.61 G
Even strength
0 G0.5
0.51 G
Power play
1 G1.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL60%40%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.04 – 1.58

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNSH
35
Shots on goal
24
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/3
Power play
1/4
15
Penalty minutes
13
10
Hits
14
18
Blocked shots
19
7
Giveaways
9
6
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000030.11114—23:30
81E. CernakD011+330.05030—22:28
27R. McDonaghD000+300.02180—22:20
98M. SergachevD011030.11030—19:17
17A. KillornL011+120.07002—18:53
91S. StamkosC101+151.111025018:04
18O. PalatL000+110.11300—18:03
44J. RuttaD000020.04000—17:51
21B. PointC011+120.350005517:28
71A. CirelliC202+140.131126916:20
19B. GoodrowC000+130.190105015:39
20B. ColemanL101+120.58200—15:36
9T. JohnsonC000+130.510004314:37
37Y. GourdeC000+110.090005714:20
7M. JosephR000010.020004309:52
14P. MaroonL011000.00000—09:52
2L. SchennD000000.01105—09:39
92A. VolkovR000000.00010—08:58
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35C. McElhinney(W)24231.9581.65+0.6560:00

Season series

TBL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).