Avalanche at Ducks 2-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Colorado Avalanche

▸2

Anaheim Ducks

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Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Anaheim Ducks 2-0. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Valeri Nichushkin's goal at 17:12 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 47% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.0 to 1.6; shots on goal were COL 35, ANA 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 28 of 28 (1.000), 1.6 goals saved above expected; John Gibson stopped 33 of 34 (.971), 2.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Valeri Nichushkin (1 G), 2. John Gibson (33 saves, .971), 3. Jonas Johansson (28 saves, 1.000).

Three stars

★
V. Nichushkin1 G
★★
J. Gibson33 saves, .971
★★★
J. Johansson28 saves, 1.000

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	09	112	114	235
ANA	08	012	08	028

Scoring

2 goals

2nd period

V. Nichushkin(9)
R. Graves (12), T. Jost (6)
snapxG 0.18win prob +22 pts
1-0
17:12

3rd period

M. Rantanen(23)EN
N. MacKinnon (33)
wristxG 0.89win prob +5 pts
2-0
19:26

Penalties

4 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

12:54Maxime Comtois · Trippingdrawn by Joonas Donskoi2 min

2nd

13:08Keaton Middleton · Interferencedrawn by Sam Carrick2 min
13:25Cam Fowler · Holdingdrawn by Pierre-Edouard Bellemare2 min
14:15Jakob Silfverberg · Holdingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min

3rd

1:15Andre Burakovsky · Holdingdrawn by Jani Hakanpää2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: ANA

Biggest swing: Valeri Nichushkin, 2nd 17:12 — COL 47% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.6 xG · 42 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 4.0 xG · 50 att ANA

0 G · 1.6 xG · 42 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.01 G
All situations: 0 G1.6; 2.31 G
Even strength: 0 G1.4; 0.80 G
Power play: 0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

75%25%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.07 – 1.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

35
Shots on goal: 28; 48%
Faceoffs: 52%; 0/3
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 6; 15
Hits: 26; 8
Blocked shots: 12; 10
Giveaways: 14; 7
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Colorado Avalanche skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
7D. ToewsD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.02	1	1	0	—	24:27
49S. GirardD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.11	1	1	0	—	24:15
8C. MakarD	0	0	0	0	1	0.23	1	0	0	—	24:14
27R. GravesD	0	1	1	+1	6	0.24	1	1	0	—	22:47
29N. MacKinnonC	0	1	1	+1	6	0.58	0	1	0	58	21:24
96M. RantanenR	1	0	1	+1	3	1.25	1	1	0	50	21:24
92G. LandeskogL	0	0	0	+1	5	0.45	0	1	0	40	20:56
13V. NichushkinR	1	0	1	+1	3	0.38	2	1	0	—	16:05
17T. JostC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.24	1	0	0	0	14:34
72J. DonskoiR	0	0	0	0	2	0.33	1	0	0	100	14:22
95A. BurakovskyL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	2	—	13:57
91N. KadriC	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	1	0	0	38	13:25
20B. SaadL	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	0	0	0	—	13:15
37J. CompherL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	1	0	64	11:13
88K. BurroughsD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.02	2	0	0	—	11:01
67K. MiddletonD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	2	—	10:41
41P. BellemareL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	10:39
38L. O'BrienC	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	1	0	0	0	07:21

Colorado Avalanche goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35J. Johansson(W)	28	28	0	1.000	1.65	+1.65	60:00

Season series

COL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score