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Avalanche at Wild
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

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Colorado Avalanche
3
Minnesota Wild
▸8
FinalTV ESPN+, BSWI+·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Colorado Avalanche 8-3. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Luke Johnson's goal at 13:15 of the first period, which took the Wild's chances from 67% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 1.8 to 1.4; shots on goal were COL 32, MIN 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 11 of 18 (.611), 5.7 goals below expected; Cam Talbot stopped 29 of 32 (.906), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Kevin Fiala (3 G, 1 A), 2. Jared Spurgeon (3 A), 3. Kirill Kaprizov (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    K. Fiala3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    MIN
    J. Spurgeon3 A
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    K. Kaprizov2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL04314014332
MINMIN392436819

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    K. Kaprizov(15)PPG
    V. Rask (6), J. Spurgeon (9)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    4:00
  2. MIN
    L. Johnson(1)
    K. Rau (2), C. Soucy (11)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    13:15
  3. MIN
    K. Fiala(12)PPG
    J. Spurgeon (10), V. Rask (7)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +7 pts
    0-3
    18:38

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(15)PPG
    C. Makar (22), M. Rantanen (24)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +8 pts
    1-3
    0:34
  2. MIN
    R. Hartman(6)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.09win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    4:37
  3. COL
    A. Burakovsky(11)
    J. MacDonald (6), K. Burroughs (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +9 pts
    2-4
    5:17
  4. COL
    M. Rantanen(22)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (32), C. Makar (23)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    3-4
    9:42
  5. MIN
    K. Kaprizov(16)PPG
    K. Fiala (11), J. Spurgeon (11)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    3-5
    13:38

3rd period

  1. MIN
    K. Fiala(13)
    N. Bonino (5)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +5 pts
    3-6
    4:24
  2. MIN
    J. Eriksson Ek(13)
    Z. Parise (10), J. Greenway (19)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +1 pts
    3-7
    7:18
  3. MIN
    K. Fiala(14)PPG
    K. Kaprizov (18), V. Rask (8)
    wristxG 0.06
    3-8
    7:56

Penalties

COL 24 PIM·MIN 28 PIM

1st

  • 0:51COLDevon Toews · Cross checkingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min
  • 0:51MINJoel Eriksson Ek · Slashingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min
  • 2:01COLNathan MacKinnon · Hookingdrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min
  • 4:35MINJordan Greenway · Interferencedrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 9:39MINRyan Hartman · Roughingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 17:51COLserved by A. Burakovsky · Delaying game bench2 min
  • 19:03MINCarson Soucy · Cross checkingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

2nd

  • 0:47MINRyan Hartman · Trippingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 8:40MINRyan Suter · Roughingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 12:55COLNathan MacKinnon · Slashingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min

3rd

  • 4:57COLJoonas Donskoi · Hookingdrawn by Jared Spurgeon2 min
  • 7:41COLMikko Rantanen · Cross checkingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min
  • 8:51COLLiam O'Brien · Roughingdrawn by Mathew Dumba2 min
  • 8:51MINMathew Dumba · Roughingdrawn by Liam O'Brien2 min
  • 8:51MINMathew Dumba · Misconductdrawn by Liam O'Brien10 min
  • 8:51COLLiam O'Brien · Misconductdrawn by Mathew Dumba10 min
  • 14:18MINIan Cole · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 19:38MINRyan Hartman · Cross checkingdrawn by Jacob MacDonald2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalCOL goalFinal: MIN 100%

Biggest swing: Luke Johnson, 1st 13:15 — MIN 67% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.11R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.11J. Eriksson Ek · Goal · xG 0.10K. Kaprizov · Goal · xG 0.09R. Hartman · Goal · xG 0.08K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.08K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.07K. Fiala · Goal · xG 0.07N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.07K. Kaprizov · Goal · xG 0.06K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.06K. Fiala · Goal · xG 0.06K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.06M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.04K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.04M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.04J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.03K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.03K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.03M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.03K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.03J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.03K. Fiala · Goal · xG 0.03J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.02K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.02R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.01C. Soucy · On goal · xG 0.00J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN8 G · 1.4 xG · 28 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsMIN
1.83 G
All situations
8 G1.4
1.01 G
Even strength
4 G0.8
0.82 G
Power play
4 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 67 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL60%40%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.83 – 1.38

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsMIN
32
Shots on goal
19
51%
Faceoffs
49%
2/7
Power play
4/5
24
Penalty minutes
28
10
Hits
16
11
Blocked shots
20
3
Giveaways
2
1
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD022-210.02100—25:53
96M. RantanenR112-240.38002—21:25
29N. MacKinnonC112-230.17004020:47
7D. ToewsD000-220.03132—20:35
92G. LandeskogL000-210.041006520:08
49S. GirardD000-210.03000—19:48
72J. DonskoiR000-130.230125016:25
27R. GravesD000-120.05010—16:19
91N. KadriC000050.270006715:51
20B. SaadL000010.15000—15:04
34J. MacDonaldD011040.10120—14:18
88K. BurroughsD011+100.00310—14:17
37J. CompherL000000.001003014:01
95A. BurakovskyL101020.15000—13:30
17T. JostC000-120.051005612:20
13V. NichushkinR000-110.1600010012:13
41P. BellemareL000000.000306011:10
38L. O'BrienC000000.001012006:16
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31P. Grubauer(L)18117.6111.31-5.6947:14
35J. Johansson101.0000.07-0.9312:42

Season series

COL leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).