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Avalanche at Wild
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Minnesota Wild
1
FinalTV FS-N, FS-WI·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Minnesota Wild 5-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mikko Rantanen's goal at 3:07 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 63% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.0 to 1.5; shots on goal were COL 33, MIN 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 19 of 20 (.950); Kaapo Kahkonen stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 1 A), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (2 A), 3. Brandon Saad (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    B. Saad1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL21411227533
MINMIN1601004120

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    L. O'Connor(1)
    S. Girard (6), C. Makar (10)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:02
  2. MIN
    M. Dumba(3)
    J. Brodin (4), J. Greenway (7)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    6:49
  3. COL
    J. Donskoi(4)PPG
    B. Saad (3), A. Burakovsky (4)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    19:43

2nd period

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(7)
    N. MacKinnon (9), G. Landeskog (4)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    3:07

3rd period

  1. COL
    B. Saad(4)
    N. MacKinnon (10), M. Rantanen (3)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +3 pts
    4-1
    12:17
  2. COL
    J. Compher(1)PPG
    A. Burakovsky (5), S. Girard (7)
    wristxG 0.09
    5-1
    14:55

Penalties

COL 4 PIM·MIN 14 PIM

1st

  • 17:57MINRyan Suter · Trippingdrawn by Joonas Donskoi2 min

2nd

  • 6:24COLNathan MacKinnon · Trippingdrawn by Jonas Brodin2 min
  • 10:18MINCarson Soucy · Hookingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 15:57MINCarson Soucy · Cross checking double minordrawn by Tyson Jost4 min

3rd

  • 3:36MINJordan Greenway · Hookingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min
  • 6:54COLGabriel Landeskog · Slashingdrawn by Jonas Brodin2 min
  • 13:25MINZach Parise · Trippingdrawn by Andre Burakovsky2 min
  • 18:51MINRyan Hartman · Slashingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalCOL goalFinal: MIN 0%

Biggest swing: Mikko Rantanen, 2nd 3:07 — COL 63% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.17J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.16N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.14N. Bonino · Missed · xG 0.10M. Foligno · Missed · xG 0.10M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.10J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.09B. Hunt · Missed · xG 0.08K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.07V. Rask · On goal · xG 0.07J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.06M. Dumba · Goal · xG 0.04J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.04J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.03R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.03M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.03M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.02M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.02J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.01R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.01M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.01R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.00C. Soucy · On goal · xG 0.00M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN1 G · 1.5 xG · 29 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsMIN
2.05 G
All situations
1 G1.5
1.13 G
Even strength
1 G0.9
0.92 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL62%38%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.04 – 1.47

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsMIN
33
Shots on goal
20
48%
Faceoffs
52%
2/7
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
14
5
Hits
21
4
Blocked shots
18
3
Giveaways
2
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD011+250.27100—25:27
49S. GirardD022+100.02010—24:58
29N. MacKinnonC022+140.311124422:24
92G. LandeskogL011030.081027521:07
96M. RantanenR112+130.16000—20:42
27R. GravesD000030.05010—20:01
4B. ByramD000+110.18000—19:26
22C. TimminsD000020.05000—17:56
91N. KadriC000010.120004216:04
72J. DonskoiR101010.13000—15:19
37J. CompherL101020.240005815:03
20B. SaadL112+120.10000—14:17
17T. JostC000+120.150004513:49
95A. BurakovskyL022000.00010—13:37
13V. NichushkinR000010.08100—12:07
44K. SherwoodL000+100.00000—10:12
25L. O'ConnorR101+120.08000—10:10
6E. JohnsonD000010.02100—03:21
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31P. Grubauer(W)20191.9501.48+0.4860:00

Season series

COL leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).