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Wild at Avalanche
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
1
Colorado Avalanche
▸2
FinalTV NBCSN, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Minnesota Wild 2-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kirill Kaprizov's goal at 13:05 of the second period, which took the Wild's chances from 12% to 27%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.4 to 2.0; shots on goal were MIN 28, COL 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 29 of 31 (.935); Philipp Grubauer stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.0 goals saved above expected.

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MINMIN0111908128
COLCOL11211108231

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    L. O'Connor(2)
    K. Sherwood (2), C. Makar (11)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    17:45

2nd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(2)
    J. Donskoi (3)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    7:09
  2. MIN
    K. Kaprizov(3)PPG
    Z. Parise (3), G. Mayhew (1)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    13:05

Penalties

MIN 11 PIM·COL 11 PIM

1st

  • 2:44COLSheldon Dries · Interferencedrawn by Gerry Mayhew2 min
  • 8:33MINJordan Greenway · Slashingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 14:13MINJonas Brodin · Interferencedrawn by J.T. Compher2 min

2nd

  • 2:49COLLogan O'Connor · High stickingdrawn by Ryan Suter2 min
  • 11:38COLJ.T. Compher · Fightingdrawn by Kyle Rau5 min
  • 11:38MINKyle Rau · Fightingdrawn by J.T. Compher5 min
  • 11:38COLJ.T. Compher · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Kyle Rau2 min

3rd

  • 3:20MINJonas Brodin · Holdingdrawn by Sheldon Dries2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalMIN goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Kirill Kaprizov, 2nd 13:05 — MIN 12% → 27%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Dries · On goal · xG 0.17M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.17V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.17M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.15N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.15C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.13M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.13N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.11C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.10J. Donskoi · On goal · xG 0.10J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.06L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.06B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.06B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.05A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.05J. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.04L. O'Connor · Goal · xG 0.04J. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.04R. Graves · Missed · xG 0.03B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.03J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.03B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03R. Graves · Missed · xG 0.03V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.03R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02J. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.02T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.02A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.02C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.01G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.00L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.00S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.00
COL2 G · 2.4 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsCOL
2.01 G
All situations
2 G2.4
1.00 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.61 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN40%60%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.91 – 2.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsCOL
28
Shots on goal
31
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/3
Power play
0/3
11
Penalty minutes
11
23
Hits
17
23
Blocked shots
14
3
Giveaways
8
11
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
20R. SuterD000-220.03110—26:57
25J. BrodinD000000.03134—23:21
21C. SoucyD000010.01210—21:15
97K. KaprizovL101-120.62010—20:35
11Z. PariseL011-120.100005017:48
77B. HuntD000030.07110—17:01
28I. ColeD000010.03140—16:38
38R. HartmanR000030.322102516:36
26G. MayhewC011020.14020016:16
18J. GreenwayL000020.16512—16:05
14J. Eriksson EkC000020.144001715:38
49V. RaskC000000.002104415:25
46J. SpurgeonD000-220.03040—15:03
27N. BjugstadC000-120.151205514:39
41L. JohnsonC000-100.00000012:44
13N. BoninoC000-110.010105410:35
7N. SturmC000-110.041005010:31
37K. RauC000020.09205007:26
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33C. Talbot(L)31292.9352.42+0.4259:02

Season series

COL leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).