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Avalanche at Wild
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Minnesota Wild
4
FinalTV ESPN+, BSN+·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Minnesota Wild 5-4. The Wild scored first; the Avalanche answered. The Avalanche led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Saad's goal at 15:48 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 69% to 86%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.3, MIN 2.4; shots on goal were COL 36, MIN 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 1.6 goals below expected; Cam Talbot stopped 31 of 36 (.861), 2.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Samuel Girard (2 A), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 3. Ryan Hartman (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    S. Girard2 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    R. Hartman1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL06420110536
MINMIN1110539425

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    R. Hartman(5)
    N. Bjugstad (9), M. Johansson (3)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:40

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(14)
    S. Girard (24), D. Toews (16)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    0:18
  2. COL
    A. Burakovsky(10)
    S. Girard (25), N. Kadri (18)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    1:29
  3. COL
    B. Saad(12)
    A. Burakovsky (15), J. MacDonald (5)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    15:48
  4. COL
    J. Compher(5)
    C. Makar (21), L. O'Brien (1)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +9 pts
    4-1
    17:52

3rd period

  1. MIN
    N. Bjugstad(6)
    R. Hartman (10), I. Cole (3)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +6 pts
    4-2
    3:35
  2. COL
    G. Landeskog(15)PPG
    M. Rantanen (23), N. MacKinnon (31)
    deflectedxG 0.15win prob +4 pts
    5-2
    7:22
  3. MIN
    M. Johansson(5)PPG
    R. Suter (13), R. Hartman (11)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +4 pts
    5-3
    9:44
  4. MIN
    K. Fiala(11)PPG
    J. Spurgeon (8)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +3 pts
    5-4
    19:25

Penalties

COL 21 PIM·MIN 37 PIM

1st

  • 5:36COLDevon Toews · Interferencedrawn by Luke Johnson2 min

2nd

  • 3:20COLJacob MacDonald · Holdingdrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min
  • 5:27COLserved by A. Burakovsky · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 18:54COLMikko Rantanen · Cross checkingdrawn by Mathew Dumba2 min

3rd

  • 4:37MINIan Cole · Boardingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 6:57MINKirill Kaprizov · Hookingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 7:44COLLiam O'Brien · Trippingdrawn by Nico Sturm2 min
  • 10:22COLKyle Burroughs · Fightingdrawn by Nick Bjugstad5 min
  • 10:22MINNick Bjugstad · Fightingdrawn by Kyle Burroughs5 min
  • 18:11COLRyan Graves · Interferencedrawn by Jared Spurgeon2 min
  • 19:53MINNick Bonino · Slashingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min
  • 19:53MINNick Bonino · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Devon Toews2 min
  • 19:53MINNick Bonino · Misconduct10 min
  • 20:00COLGabriel Landeskog · Roughingdrawn by Mathew Dumba2 min
  • 20:00COLMikko Rantanen · Roughingdrawn by Mathew Dumba2 min
  • 20:00MINMathew Dumba · Roughingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 20:00MINMathew Dumba · Roughingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 20:00MINMathew Dumba · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalCOL goalFinal: MIN 0%

Biggest swing: Brandon Saad, 2nd 15:48 — COL 69% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.34N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.19K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.17J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.16J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.15K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.11R. Hartman · Goal · xG 0.11K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.10J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.08N. Bjugstad · Goal · xG 0.08R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.08J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.07K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.07K. Fiala · Goal · xG 0.06M. Johansson · Goal · xG 0.06K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.05K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.05M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.04V. Rask · On goal · xG 0.04J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.04M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.03N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.03K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.03R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.03K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.03R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.03L. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Brodin · Missed · xG 0.02M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.02K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.02J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN4 G · 2.4 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsMIN
2.35 G
All situations
4 G2.4
2.04 G
Even strength
2 G1.4
0.31 G
Power play
2 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL50%50%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.26 – 2.28

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsMIN
36
Shots on goal
25
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/3
Power play
2/6
21
Penalty minutes
37
14
Hits
21
12
Blocked shots
13
6
Giveaways
13
6
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD011+340.11222—29:48
49S. GirardD022+130.07100—26:46
8C. MakarD011+240.08010—24:47
27R. GravesD000-100.00032—21:09
96M. RantanenR011+160.39104—20:21
92G. LandeskogL101+130.551125319:26
29N. MacKinnonC112+220.280005319:07
13V. NichushkinR000020.11220—15:16
72J. DonskoiR000000.0401010015:13
17T. JostC000010.070002014:02
41P. BellemareL000+110.021007313:25
37J. CompherL101+120.130206712:54
91N. KadriC011-140.130004612:23
95A. BurakovskyL112010.12000—11:22
20B. SaadL101020.1600010011:16
34J. MacDonaldD011000.01102—09:45
88K. BurroughsD000-110.04205—06:17
38L. O'BrienC011+100.00302005:27
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31P. Grubauer(W)25214.8402.35-1.6560:00

Season series

COL leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).