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Lightning at Hurricanes
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
0
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
FinalTV FS-CR, SUN·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-0. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Vincent Trocheck's goal at 2:19 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.9 to 3.3; shots on goal were TBL 24, CAR 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 24 of 27 (.889); Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 24 of 24 (1.000), 3.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Nedeljkovic (24 saves, 1.000), 2. Sebastian Aho (1 G, 1 A), 3. Cedric Paquette (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    A. Nedeljkovic24 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Aho1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    C. Paquette1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0601305024
CARCAR0929210428

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. CAR
    V. Trocheck(9)
    N. Niederreiter (3), M. Necas (8)
    deflectedxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    2:19
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(6)
    A. Svechnikov (9)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    15:30

3rd period

  1. CAR
    C. Paquette(2)
    J. Bean (4), J. Martinook (4)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +6 pts
    0-3
    3:12
  2. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(7)EN
    S. Aho (10), B. McGinn (4)
    wristxG 0.63
    0-4
    17:41

Penalties

TBL 4 PIM·CAR 2 PIM

1st

  • 0:28TBLErik Cernak · Trippingdrawn by Warren Foegele2 min

2nd

  • 5:44CARSebastian Aho · Slashingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min

3rd

  • 13:38TBLTyler Johnson · Trippingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalTBL goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Vincent Trocheck, 2nd 2:19 — CAR 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Svechnikov · Goal · xG 0.63B. McGinn · Missed · xG 0.58W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.21J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.20A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.17S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.16V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.16C. Paquette · Goal · xG 0.15N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.14M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.14S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.13N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.10V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.09N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.08B. McGinn · Missed · xG 0.08J. Fast · Missed · xG 0.07D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.06J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.06S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.06W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.06J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.05V. Trocheck · Goal · xG 0.05J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.04W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.04W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.04N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.04N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.04B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.03S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.03N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.03J. Bean · Missed · xG 0.03J. Bean · Missed · xG 0.03B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.02D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.02B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.02N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.01B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bean · Missed · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.00D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.00J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR4 G · 3.9 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCAR
3.30 G
All situations
3 G3.9
2.90 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL60%40%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.24 – 2.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCAR
24
Shots on goal
28
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
32
Hits
27
17
Blocked shots
14
8
Giveaways
12
7
Takeaways
16

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000-120.15020—26:44
27R. McDonaghD000-200.00050—22:10
98M. SergachevD000-110.02230—21:03
37Y. GourdeC000010.010104718:44
81E. CernakD000-200.04512—18:36
44J. RuttaD000-120.03020—17:45
21B. PointC000-220.910001717:24
18O. PalatL000-210.02110—17:12
91S. StamkosC000-210.102005016:40
20B. ColemanL000020.27600—15:44
17A. KillornL000-220.21200—14:55
14P. MaroonL000-100.00100—14:17
19B. GoodrowC000010.1631010013:56
7M. JosephR000-130.23100—13:52
9T. JohnsonC000-110.151026713:34
2L. SchennD000-120.01400—11:46
46G. SmithC000-100.020007011:38
92A. VolkovR000-130.91410—11:16
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)27243.8892.70-0.3058:44

Season series

Tied 4-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).