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Hurricanes at Lightning
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
1
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-CR·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Carolina Hurricanes 3-1. The Hurricanes scored first; the Lightning answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Yanni Gourde's goal at 6:22 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.2 to 2.1; shots on goal were CAR 32, TBL 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. James Reimer stopped 19 of 21 (.905); Curtis McElhinney stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 2.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Curtis McElhinney (31 saves, .969), 2. Mikhail Sergachev (1 G), 3. Brett Pesce (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    C. McElhinney31 saves, .969
  2. ★★
    TBL
    M. Sergachev1 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    B. Pesce1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR11301207132
TBLTBL061828322

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    B. Pesce(2)
    J. Fast (4), S. Aho (11)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    14:23

2nd period

  1. TBL
    M. Sergachev(1)
    B. Point (12)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +20 pts
    1-1
    12:39

3rd period

  1. TBL
    Y. Gourde(5)
    V. Hedman (15)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +28 pts
    1-2
    6:22
  2. TBL
    B. Goodrow(5)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.47win prob +6 pts
    1-3
    18:44

Penalties

CAR 12 PIM·TBL 12 PIM

1st

  • 8:44CARDougie Hamilton · Holdingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 14:31CARBrett Pesce · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:07TBLAlex Killorn · Slashingdrawn by Brock McGinn2 min
  • 18:20CARJordan Staal · High stickingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min

2nd

  • 2:36TBLPatrick Maroon · Slashingdrawn by Jake Bean2 min
  • 6:59TBLJan Rutta · Holdingdrawn by Jordan Staal2 min
  • 9:16CARMartin Necas · Holdingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 16:46TBLserved by O. Palat · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 19:28CARSteven Lorentz · Interferencedrawn by Alex Killorn2 min

3rd

  • 7:48CARJordan Martinook · Roughingdrawn by Patrick Maroon2 min
  • 7:48TBLPatrick Maroon · Roughingdrawn by Jordan Martinook2 min
  • 7:48TBLPatrick Maroon · Roughingdrawn by Jordan Martinook2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalCAR goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Yanni Gourde, 3rd 6:22 — TBL 52% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Goodrow · Goal · xG 0.47C. Foote · On goal · xG 0.14J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.12Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.10M. Sergachev · Goal · xG 0.10M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.09M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.09V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · On goal · xG 0.08M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.08O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.07A. Volkov · On goal · xG 0.07C. Foote · On goal · xG 0.06B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.06M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.06B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.05E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.05M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.05J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL3 G · 2.1 xG · 29 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsTBL
3.21 G
All situations
2 G2.1
2.11 G
Even strength
2 G1.5
0.90 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR77%23%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.21 – 1.64

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsTBL
32
Shots on goal
22
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/5
Power play
0/5
12
Penalty minutes
12
12
Hits
17
7
Blocked shots
15
0
Giveaways
1
2
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22B. PesceD101040.37032—23:49
74J. SlavinD000-230.08100—22:56
19D. HamiltonD000000.10012—22:22
76B. SkjeiD000010.17000—21:49
20S. AhoC011-130.311005021:29
11J. StaalC000-120.412026320:12
37A. SvechnikovR000-110.2410010018:24
16V. TrocheckC000-120.251106318:18
48J. MartinookL000020.45002—14:02
88M. NecasC000-120.070025014:00
71J. FastR011010.03000—13:43
23B. McGinnL000-130.1710010013:36
21N. NiederreiterR000030.32000—12:29
24J. BeanD000-100.00010—12:26
13W. FoegeleL000-120.16000—10:57
78S. LorentzC000020.051025010:49
18C. PaquetteC000010.0531010009:48
4H. FleuryD000-100.00100—08:48
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
47J. Reimer(L)21192.9051.64-0.3658:34

Season series

Tied 4-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).