Skip to content
Lightning at Hurricanes
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
0
Carolina Hurricanes
▸1
Final/OTTV FS-CR, SUN·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 1-0 in overtime, Martin Necas scoring at 1:12. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Martin Necas's goal at 1:12 of overtime, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — TBL 3.2, CAR 3.4; shots on goal were TBL 32, CAR 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 34 of 35 (.971), 2.4 goals saved above expected; Petr Mrazek stopped 32 of 32 (1.000), 3.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Petr Mrazek (32 saves, 1.000), 2. Martin Necas (1 G), 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy (34 saves, .971).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    P. Mrazek32 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    CAR
    M. Necas1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy34 saves, .971

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TBLTBL0701401100032
CARCAR0150701013135

Scoring

1 goal

Overtime

  1. CAR
    M. Necas(1)
    J. Staal (1), D. Hamilton (3)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +49 pts
    0-1
    1:12

Penalties

TBL 8 PIM·CAR 6 PIM

1st

  • 1:33CARBrock McGinn · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 4:39TBLRyan McDonagh · Slashingdrawn by Morgan Geekie2 min
  • 19:41CARRyan Dzingel · Hookingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min

2nd

  • 20:00TBLVictor Hedman · Slashingdrawn by Brock McGinn2 min

3rd

  • 3:41TBLSteven Stamkos · Trippingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 6:36CARMorgan Geekie · Holdingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 7:12TBLAlex Killorn · Interferencedrawn by Brock McGinn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalTBL goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Martin Necas, OT 1:12 — CAR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.23S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.22J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.19S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.19M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.17S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.16J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.15B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.14A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.13A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.12S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.11D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.11B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.10A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.10M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.09N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.09V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.07B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.07J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.07A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.06B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.06R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.06S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.06J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.06B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.06V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.06M. McCormick · On goal · xG 0.05V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.05D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.04A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.04M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.04B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.03S. Rempal · On goal · xG 0.02N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.02B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.02J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.02D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.01M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.01B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.01S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.01J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.01B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.01B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.01B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.01J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.01H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.00V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.00D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR1 G · 3.4 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCAR
3.20 G
All situations
1 G3.4
3.00 G
Even strength
1 G2.9
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 102 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL46%54%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.16 – 3.40

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCAR
32
Shots on goal
35
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/3
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
27
Hits
25
15
Blocked shots
15
10
Giveaways
18
8
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000-140.30202—27:25
27R. McDonaghD000010.01142—25:03
98M. SergachevD000020.12010—23:19
17A. KillornL000020.07302—19:05
21B. PointC000020.121005018:17
71A. CirelliC000030.680104018:00
91S. StamkosC000020.374026417:17
18O. PalatL000-100.02110—17:01
44J. RuttaD000030.14020—16:51
9T. JohnsonC000-130.082106716:16
20B. ColemanL000020.31110—15:57
19B. GoodrowC000010.13220015:56
2L. SchennD000010.03710—15:30
37Y. GourdeC000030.240006714:08
14P. MaroonL000010.2910010010:00
52C. FooteD000000.00000—08:55
7M. JosephR000010.050003308:49
92A. VolkovR000010.23210—08:04
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(O)35341.9713.44+2.4460:55

Season series

Tied 4-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).