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Lightning at Hurricanes
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Carolina Hurricanes
2
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-CR·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Carolina Hurricanes 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ondrej Palat's goal at 8:04 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 48% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.6 to 3.1; shots on goal were TBL 32, CAR 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 34 of 36 (.944), 1.1 goals saved above expected; James Reimer stopped 28 of 31 (.903). Three stars: 1. Victor Hedman (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jesper Fast (2 G), 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy (34 saves, .944).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    V. Hedman1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    J. Fast2 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy34 saves, .944

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL011211210432
CARCAR17112017236

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    J. Fast(1)
    M. Necas (9), J. Bean (5)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    13:27

2nd period

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(9)PPG
    V. Hedman (13), O. Palat (7)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    2:26
  2. TBL
    V. Hedman(4)
    M. Sergachev (12), S. Stamkos (8)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    7:12
  3. CAR
    J. Fast(2)PPG
    B. Pesce (8), D. Hamilton (10)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    19:15

3rd period

  1. TBL
    O. Palat(7)
    J. Rutta (4), B. Point (11)
    deflectedxG 0.17win prob +30 pts
    3-2
    8:04
  2. TBL
    A. Killorn(3)EN
    E. Cernak (4)
    snapxG 0.46win prob +5 pts
    4-2
    19:20

Penalties

TBL 6 PIM·CAR 8 PIM

1st

  • 2:52CARBrady Skjei · Hookingdrawn by Alexander Volkov2 min
  • 8:52CARJordan Martinook · High stickingdrawn by Patrick Maroon2 min
  • 11:22TBLSteven Stamkos · Slashingdrawn by Haydn Fleury2 min

2nd

  • 0:39CARSebastian Aho · Hookingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min
  • 18:03TBLVictor Hedman · Holdingdrawn by Nino Niederreiter2 min
  • 19:15TBLBrayden Point · Delaying game face off violation2 min

3rd

  • 2:01CARBrett Pesce · Trippingdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalTBL goalFinal: CAR 0%

Biggest swing: Ondrej Palat, 3rd 8:04 — TBL 48% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.18S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.18A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.17H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.16D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.15S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.14J. Fast · Goal · xG 0.13J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.13B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.13J. Fast · Goal · xG 0.13V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.13W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.11D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.09V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.08V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.08A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.06J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.06V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.06J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.06N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.06V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.06S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.06V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.05J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.05J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.04B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.04B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.04M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.04V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.03J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.03B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.03S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.03H. Fleury · Missed · xG 0.03J. Bean · Missed · xG 0.02D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.02N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.02J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.02D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.02J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.01C. Paquette · Missed · xG 0.01J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.01B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.01H. Fleury · Missed · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.01W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.01
CAR2 G · 3.1 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCAR
3.63 G
All situations
2 G3.1
2.52 G
Even strength
1 G2.1
0.61 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 104 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL52%48%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.15 – 3.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCAR
32
Shots on goal
36
44%
Faceoffs
56%
1/4
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
29
Hits
22
15
Blocked shots
15
8
Giveaways
20
3
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD112+150.33012—24:53
98M. SergachevD011+110.03110—23:28
27R. McDonaghD000+110.01040—22:56
81E. CernakD011030.23620—21:48
20B. ColemanL000+160.5413010019:23
21B. PointC011+120.370126319:15
18O. PalatL112+140.37110—19:08
91S. StamkosC112+110.171025317:59
37Y. GourdeC000-120.124003317:45
9T. JohnsonC000+100.061002514:05
17A. KillornL101030.67000—13:58
19B. GoodrowC000+100.171103013:42
44J. RuttaD011+120.14200—13:01
7M. JosephR000+100.0030010012:31
14P. MaroonL000010.06100—12:24
60A. Barré-BouletC000000.100005012:11
92A. VolkovR000010.28110—09:42
2L. SchennD000000.00600—06:40
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)36342.9443.09+1.0959:59

Season series

Tied 4-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).