Ducks at Wild 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Anaheim Ducks

Minnesota Wild

▸2

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Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Anaheim Ducks 2-1. The Ducks scored first; the Wild answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Bjugstad's goal at 3:42 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 52% to 78%. Expected goals were close — ANA 1.8, MIN 1.6; shots on goal were ANA 25, MIN 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Ryan Miller stopped 21 of 23 (.913); Cam Talbot stopped 24 of 25 (.960), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jonas Brodin, 2. Nick Bjugstad (1 G), 3. Ryan Suter (1 G).

Three stars

★
J. Brodin
★★
N. Bjugstad1 G
★★★
R. Suter1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	010	16	09	125
MIN	05	111	17	223

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

T. Terry(6)
Unassisted
backhandxG 0.20win prob +17 pts
1-0
5:17
R. Suter(1)PPG
R. Hartman (7), J. Spurgeon (6)
wristxG 0.02win prob +18 pts
1-1
16:21

3rd period

N. Bjugstad(5)
C. Soucy (8), N. Sturm (3)
wristxG 0.05win prob +26 pts
1-2
3:42

Penalties

6 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

10:33Brad Hunt · High stickingdrawn by Kevin Shattenkirk2 min
16:29Nico Sturm · Holdingdrawn by Jamie Drysdale2 min

2nd

5:56Jacob Larsson · Interferencedrawn by Zach Parise2 min
12:39Jacob Larsson · Hookingdrawn by Zach Parise2 min
15:25Cam Fowler · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

17:46served by M. Zuccarello · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MIN

100%

Biggest swing: Nick Bjugstad, 3rd 3:42 — MIN 52% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 1.6 xG · 37 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 1.8 xG · 38 att MIN

2 G · 1.6 xG · 37 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.81 G
All situations: 2 G1.6; 1.51 G
Even strength: 1 G1.2; 0.30 G
Power play: 1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

55%45%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.78 – 1.57

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 23; 53%
Faceoffs: 47%; 0/3
Power play: 1/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 6; 9
Hits: 13; 9
Blocked shots: 17; 6
Giveaways: 15; 7
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Anaheim Ducks skaters
Skater	G	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4C. FowlerD	0	0	+1	3	0.07	0	0	2	—	23:18
22K. ShattenkirkD	0	0	0	2	0.10	0	0	0	—	21:39
61T. TerryR	1	1	+1	2	0.31	0	1	0	—	19:32
49M. JonesL	0	0	-1	2	0.25	0	0	0	—	19:03
67R. RakellR	0	0	0	3	0.20	0	1	0	—	18:34
33J. SilfverbergR	0	0	-1	1	0.09	0	0	0	50	18:06
15R. GetzlafC	0	0	+1	1	0.07	1	0	0	69	17:31
32J. LarssonD	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	1	4	—	16:00
28J. HakanpääD	0	0	+1	0	0.01	4	2	0	—	15:59
34J. DrysdaleD	0	0	-1	3	0.18	0	0	0	—	15:15
20N. DeslauriersL	0	0	0	3	0.36	0	1	0	—	15:13
23S. SteelC	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	50	14:44
38D. GrantC	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	60	14:02
46T. ZegrasC	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	50	13:56
48I. LundestromC	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	50	13:48
7B. HuttonD	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	1	0	—	13:37
14A. HenriqueC	0	0	0	2	0.09	0	0	0	30	13:18
42J. MansonD	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	1	0	—	12:36

Anaheim Ducks goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30R. Miller(L)	23	21	2	.913	1.58	-0.42	58:42

Season series

MIN leads 7-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score