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Predators at Hurricanes
NHL

Nashville Predators at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
1
Carolina Hurricanes
▸5
FinalTV FS-CR, FS-TN·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Nashville Predators 5-1. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brock McGinn's goal at 11:11 of the first period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 67% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 2.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were NSH 33, CAR 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 18 of 23 (.783), 2.8 goals below expected; James Reimer stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 1.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Morgan Geekie (2 G), 2. James Reimer (32 saves, .970), 3. Jake Bean (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    M. Geekie2 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    J. Reimer32 saves, .970
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    J. Bean2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH01506112133
CARCAR3611218526

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    M. Geekie(1)PPG
    J. Bean (7), N. Niederreiter (6)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    9:06
  2. CAR
    B. McGinn(8)
    W. Foegele (5)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    11:11
  3. CAR
    D. Hamilton(2)
    A. Svechnikov (13), J. Fast (7)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    11:27

2nd period

  1. CAR
    M. Geekie(2)PPG
    J. Bean (8), B. Pesce (11)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +3 pts
    0-4
    8:50

3rd period

  1. CAR
    M. Necas(5)PPG
    A. Svechnikov (14), D. Hamilton (18)
    deflectedxG 0.12
    0-5
    4:38
  2. NSH
    N. Cousins(3)
    M. Ekholm (6)
    snapxG 0.01
    1-5
    15:28

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·CAR 2 PIM

1st

  • 7:19NSHMichael McCarron · Roughingdrawn by Brady Skjei2 min

2nd

  • 6:50NSHNick Cousins · Cross checkingdrawn by Warren Foegele2 min
  • 11:32CARDougie Hamilton · Interferencedrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min

3rd

  • 3:40NSHBen Harpur · Cross checkingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalNSH goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Brock McGinn, 1st 11:11 — CAR 67% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.25A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.19S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.15W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.15A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.15N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.13M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.12D. Hamilton · Goal · xG 0.12S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.11J. Fast · On goal · xG 0.11J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.10M. Geekie · Goal · xG 0.10M. Geekie · Goal · xG 0.09J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.09B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.07M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.06A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.06B. McGinn · Goal · xG 0.05S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.05J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.04M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.04J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.03M. Geekie · Missed · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.03B. McGinn · Missed · xG 0.03J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.03J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.02A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.01B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.01B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.01J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.01H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.01B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.01H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.01
CAR5 G · 2.5 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCAR
2.81 G
All situations
5 G2.5
2.71 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.10 G
Power play
3 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH54%46%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.69 – 2.49

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCAR
33
Shots on goal
26
36%
Faceoffs
64%
0/1
Power play
3/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
34
Hits
21
11
Blocked shots
13
8
Giveaways
10
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
45A. CarrierD000040.27030—25:16
14M. EkholmD011+140.11420—24:13
38J. DaviesD000020.16010—22:19
5M. BenningD000-110.02010—21:17
92R. JohansenC000-130.391003618:52
17B. HarpurD000-100.02102—18:38
64M. GranlundC000010.0720010018:01
33V. ArvidssonL000060.2300010017:54
9F. ForsbergL000-120.33300—16:40
19C. JarnkrokC000020.26000016:05
16R. PitlickC000+120.094004415:27
10C. SissonsC000-100.022103314:38
28E. TolvanenR000-100.00400—14:36
21N. CousinsC101010.0110210012:02
13Y. TreninC000030.59210011:25
25M. OlivierR000010.09400—11:03
47M. McCarronC000010.104021010:24
90M. BorowieckiD000-100.00220—06:25
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(L)23185.7832.17-2.8344:38
73K. Kaskisuo3301.0000.32+0.3215:22

Season series

CAR leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).