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Hurricanes at Predators
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
Nashville Predators
2
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-CR·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Nashville Predators 4-2. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mattias Ekholm's goal at 8:17 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 6% to 22%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.2 to 2.3; shots on goal were CAR 28, NSH 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. James Reimer stopped 36 of 38 (.947); Pekka Rinne stopped 16 of 17 (.941), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Sebastian Aho (2 G), 2. Steven Lorentz (1 G), 3. Mattias Ekholm (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    S. Aho2 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Lorentz1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    M. Ekholm1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR21011117428
NSHNSH08013217238

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(7)
    M. Necas (12)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    12:36
  2. CAR
    V. Trocheck(12)PPG
    D. Hamilton (13), J. Staal (9)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +12 pts
    2-0
    16:13

2nd period

  1. CAR
    S. Lorentz(1)
    J. Martinook (5), C. Paquette (2)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +11 pts
    3-0
    4:48

3rd period

  1. NSH
    C. Jarnkrok(5)PPG
    N. Cousins (5), M. Ekholm (4)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +4 pts
    3-1
    6:00
  2. NSH
    M. Ekholm(3)
    D. Fabbro (6), E. Haula (5)
    deflectedxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    3-2
    8:17
  3. CAR
    S. Aho(8)EN
    J. Staal (10), J. Slavin (5)
    wristxG 0.48win prob +1 pts
    4-2
    19:46

Penalties

CAR 8 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 5:15CARNino Niederreiter · Roughingdrawn by Juuse Saros2 min
  • 11:24NSHMathieu Olivier · Roughingdrawn by Cedric Paquette2 min
  • 11:24CARCedric Paquette · Roughingdrawn by Mathieu Olivier2 min
  • 16:07NSHDante Fabbro · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 19:38CARNino Niederreiter · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

2nd

  • 18:36NSHDante Fabbro · Hookingdrawn by Warren Foegele2 min

3rd

  • 4:46CARBrett Pesce · Hookingdrawn by Rocco Grimaldi2 min
  • 18:47NSHRoman Josi · Holdingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCAR goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Mattias Ekholm, 3rd 8:17 — NSH 6% → 22%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.17M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.17C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.14F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.12V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.10M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.09C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.08V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.08M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.07E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.06V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.06R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.05C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.04C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · Goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.03D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.02M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.00
NSH2 G · 2.3 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsNSH
3.23 G
All situations
2 G2.3
2.32 G
Even strength
1 G2.0
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR57%43%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.72 – 2.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsNSH
28
Shots on goal
38
48%
Faceoffs
52%
2/3
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
8
17
Hits
12
8
Blocked shots
12
5
Giveaways
9
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
19D. HamiltonD011+220.09000—24:07
74J. SlavinD011+220.05100—22:31
22B. PesceD000010.07002—22:13
76B. SkjeiD000-140.22220—20:42
11J. StaalC022010.222106019:38
20S. AhoC202+140.860004418:00
23B. McGinnL000010.09110—17:37
16V. TrocheckC101020.360202517:36
88M. NecasC011+100.1900010016:50
37A. SvechnikovR000040.24000—16:44
4H. FleuryD000000.02210—15:35
21N. NiederreiterR000030.24104—14:41
13W. FoegeleL000010.2200010013:52
71J. FastR000000.00300—13:38
24J. BeanD000-100.00000—13:22
48J. MartinookL011020.16010—10:29
18C. PaquetteC011000.00302007:50
78S. LorentzC101010.172003307:21
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
47J. Reimer(W)38362.9472.35+0.3560:00

Season series

CAR leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).