NFL Market

Week 1 · book vs exchange

Game	Book	Exchange	Model	Gap
NENew England PatriotsSEASeattle Seahawks Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM	—	—	-3.5	—
SFSan Francisco 49ersLARLos Angeles Rams Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM	—	—	-0.5	—
NONew Orleans SaintsDETDetroit Lions Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	-7o49.5	-775%	-7.5	-0.03640k
NYJNew York JetsTENTennessee Titans Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	-1.5o38.5	-0.752%	-2.5	+0.82313k
BALBaltimore RavensINDIndianapolis Colts Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	+3.5o47.5	+3.140%	-3.5	-0.41377k
CHIChicago BearsCARCarolina Panthers Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	+3o47.5	+2.940%	+1.5	-0.09545k
CLECleveland BrownsJAXJacksonville Jaguars Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	-8.5o39.5	-8.979%	-11.5	-0.4445k
TBTampa Bay BuccaneersCINCincinnati Bengals Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	-3.5o50.5	-3.664%	-0.5	-0.12302k
BUFBuffalo BillsHOUHouston Texans Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	+1.5o44.5	+1.248%	-2	-0.31336k
ATLAtlanta FalconsPITPittsburgh Steelers Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM	-6o40.5	-6.172%	-4.5	-0.12831k
GBGreen Bay PackersMINMinnesota Vikings Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM	-2.5o46.5	-2.155%	-1.5	+0.4769k
WSHWashington CommandersPHIPhiladelphia Eagles Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM	-6o44.5	-5.868%	-8	+0.25371k
ARIArizona CardinalsLACLos Angeles Chargers Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM	-9.5o47.5	-8.981%	-8.5	+0.6428k
MIAMiami DolphinsLVLas Vegas Raiders Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM	-3o40.5	-3.161%	+2	-0.11305k
DALDallas CowboysNYGNew York Giants Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM	+3o48.5	+3.140%	-1.5	+0.051092k
DENDenver BroncosKCKansas City Chiefs Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM	-2.5o43.5	-2.456%	PK	+0.14537k

14 of 16 games are quoted on the exchange. Spreads are home-relative — a negative number means the home team is favoured. Gap is the exchange minus the book on the same game: a disagreement between two venues, not a call by us. Model is ours — point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field, fitted on 1,087 games and scored on seasons it never saw. There is no “edge” column because we measured for one and did not find it: against the closing line over a full season our number went 133–133, and the closing line predicted the final margin more accurately than we did.