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Jayden Maiava was responsible for 18 of USC's 42 points

USC never trailed and never pulled away either: the margin came from third down and field position, not from anything San José State failed to do offensively.

The Film Room
Matchups ·
8 min read
42-26
Final
USC · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
286
Jayden Maiava
passing yds, 2 TD
TeamPassingRushingReceiving
USCJayden Maiava 286, 2 TDKing Miller 63, 1 TDTrent Mosley 118, 1 TD
San José StateLuke Weaver 234, 2 TDLuke Weaver 42, 1 TDCarson Clark 74
Leaders

USC ran 76 plays to San José State's 56 and needed almost none of them to be spectacular. Nine of them gained 15 yards or more, against five for the Spartans, and Jayden Maiava had a hand in six. This was never a case of one team being able to move the ball and the other not — San José State moved it, 35.5 yards a drive. It was a case of who kept earning another snap.

Maiava went 3-for-4 on third down, and USC went 9-for-13

Third down is where this separated. USC converted nine of 13, 69 percent, against 45 percent for the Spartans, and the conversions came from a short list: Maiava 3-for-4 with his own arm and legs, Shahn Alston 2-for-2, Deshonne Redeaux 2-for-2 on the only two third downs that came his way. San José State went three-and-out on half its ten possessions. USC went three-and-out twice, and then had the ball back with a lead.

Head to head
USCSan José State
Points
42
26
Scored on % of drives
60%
40%
Three-and-out %
20%
50%
Yards / drive
49.5
35.5

How the two sides actually played on the night.

Field position followed from that. The Spartans started an average drive 72.7 yards from the end zone; the Trojans started 65.7 — seven yards closer, every possession, which across ten drives is a great deal of ground one offense never had to cover. Luke Weaver's group had to travel further to reach the same places, and USC scored on 60 percent of its drives to San José State's 40 percent while doing less work per trip.

Trent Mosley caught seven of nine, and nobody found an answer

Maiava threw at Mosley nine times and completed seven for 118 yards, comfortably the most productive connection on the field and worth close to nine points of expected value by itself. The touchdown came at Q3 2:28: a short right throw Mosley caught at the Spartan 9 and carried the last 14 yards into the end zone. That made it 35-3 with a quarter and a half still to play, and it was the last time the outcome was in question.

TeamPlayerLineEPAPts
USCJayden Maiava286 pass yds on 29 att, 2 TD; -9 rush yds on 3 car, 1 TD+14.118
USCTrent Mosley118 rec yds on 7 rec, 1 TD+8.76
USCShahn Alston30 rush yds on 7 car, 1 TD+4.86
USCKing Miller63 rush yds on 15 car, 1 TD+3.96
San José StateLuke Weaver234 pass yds on 32 att, 2 TD; 42 rush yds on 8 car, 1 TD+12.418
San José StateCarson Clark74 rec yds on 6 rec+6.2
San José StateJerry Mcclure68 rec yds on 6 rec, 1 TD+3.06
San José StateIsaiah Carlson-2 rush yds on 3 car-4.9
Who produced it. Yardage and touchdowns are the official box; EPA is the expected points each player's plays created, which is where a quiet stat line and a decisive one separate.

The rushing line reads minus-9 yards on three carries for Maiava, the least flattering true number in the game and also close to meaningless. One of those carries was the 1-yard keeper at Q1 8:55 that opened the scoring; the damage came at Q2 4:23, when Dylan Lee sacked him for 13 and USC took an intentional grounding flag on top of it. Across 32 plays he generated about 14 points of expected value on 286 passing yards and two scores.

PasserTargetCatches / targetsYardsEPA
Jayden MaiavaTrent Mosley7/9118+8.7
Luke WeaverCarson Clark6/674+6.2
Luke WeaverJerry Mcclure6/968+3.0
Jayden MaiavaKayden Dixon-Wyatt4/536+3.6
Luke WeaverAnthony Ivey2/434+0.5
Who threw to whom, and what it was worth

Luke Weaver had the best individual night on the field and lost by 16

Weaver threw for 234 yards on 32 attempts with two touchdowns and added 42 rushing yards on eight carries with a third, worth about 12 points of expected value over 39 snaps — the same 18 points of scoring responsibility Maiava carried. His deep middle throw to Carson Clark at Q3 10:16 went 42 yards and was the most valuable pass either quarterback attempted. Clark caught all six balls thrown his way for 74 yards. None of it changed the result.

Jide Abasiri kept ending Spartan drives before they got to the good part

Abasiri finished with 2.5 tackles for loss among three tackles, and the plays he made took roughly six points off the board, more than any defender on either sideline. The largest arrived at Q2 8:21, fourth-and-1 from the USC 7, when he met Isaiah Carlson two yards deep in the backfield and San José State walked off with nothing. Carlson's night: minus-2 rushing yards on three carries, every one of them taken inside the red zone.

TeamPlayerProductionEPA denied
USCJadyn Ramos1 sack, 1 TFL, 2 tackles+1.6
USCLuke Wafle0.5 TFL, 1 PBU, 1.5 tackles+1.4
USCJamaal Jarrett1 PBU
USCJide Abasiri2.5 TFLs, 3 tackles+5.7
San José StateNaseri Danielson1 INT, 8.5 tackles+2.5
San José StateDylan Lee1 sack, 1 TFL, 5.5 tackles+3.4
San José StateJohn Norwood1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 tackle+1.8
San José StateJayden Robertson1 PBU, 1.5 tackles
The defensive box, which the official box score does not publish — recovered from the play-by-play. 'EPA denied' is the expected points taken off the board by the plays each defender made.

The Spartan defense was not the problem either. Ethan Powell's 6.5 tackles and single tackle for loss denied about five points, and it was Powell who made the stop at Q1 3:59 — fourth-and-4, Maiava running right, tackled at the Spartan 1 — that ended the most damaging drive USC ran all night. Naseri Danielson added eight-and-a-half tackles and the game's only takeaway, picking off Jonas Williams at the USC 41 with 2:33 left.

WhenTeamPlay
Q1 08:55USC(08:55) No Huddle Jayden Maiava rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock
Q2 14:20USC(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Riley Wormley rush left for 5 yards gain to the SJS00 TOUCHDOWN,
Q2 02:46USC(02:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Jayden Maiava pass complete short middle to Kayden Dixon-Wyatt c
Q2 00:30USC(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun King Miller rush right for 4 yards gain to the SJS00 TOUCHDOWN,
Q3 07:15San José State(07:18) Trajan Sinatra field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD (H: Trent Carrizosa, LS: Dyla
Q3 02:28USC(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Jayden Maiava pass complete short right to Trent Mosley caught a
Q4 14:56San José State(15:00) Shotgun Luke Weaver pass complete deep middle to Jerry Mcclure caught at USC00, fo
Q4 09:42USC(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Shahn Alston rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJS00 TOUCHDOWN,
Q4 05:11San José State(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun Luke Weaver pass complete short right to Jordan Anderson caught
Q4 01:45San José StateLuke Weaver 7 Yd Run (Luke Weaver Pass to Cooper Hoch for Two-Point Conversion)
How the points were scored

The fourth quarter San José State won 23-7

Weaver's 28-yard touchdown throw to Jerry Mcclure at Q4 14:56 opened a quarter the Spartans took 23-7. Jordan Anderson's 3-yard catch at 5:11 followed, then Weaver's own 7-yard run at 1:45 with a two-point pass to Cooper Hoch behind it. In between, Viliami Teu broke a 24-yard run on third-and-11 at 6:54, the single most valuable snap either team produced. Against a 35-3 deficit entering the quarter, all of it was scoreboard repair.

Model (pregame)Result
PickUSC by 35 (98%)USC by 16
Vs. the spreadSan José State (-3 vs mkt)covered ✓
What we projected, and how it landed

What each side carries out of the Coliseum

USC leaves with an offense that never had to invent anything. Six different players scored: King Miller carried 15 times for 63 yards and punched in a 4-yarder at Q2 0:30, Riley Wormley touched the ball twice and one of them was a 5-yard touchdown at Q2 14:20, Kayden Dixon-Wyatt caught four for 36 and a score. The unfinished business is short-yardage — 60 percent scoring is strong, and the drive that died at the Spartan 1 says it is not automatic.

The Spartans leave with a quarterback who accounted for 18 points against a roster favored to bury him, a receiver in Clark who caught everything thrown at him, and a run game split between Carlson's minus-2 yards and Teu's 25 on two carries. Weaver explains most of what went right. The 50 percent three-and-out rate, and the fourth-and-1 at the USC 7 that Abasiri blew up, explain the rest.

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