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18 of San José State's 27 points came from Luke Weaver

San José State walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.

The Film Room
Matchups ·
4 min read

The favorite had other plans — Eastern Michigan just didn't get the memo. San José State (0-1) knocks off Eastern Michigan (1-0), 27-21 at Rynearson Stadium. San José State won the closing stretch, which was all there was in it. Luke Weaver threw for 316 yards on 39 attempts with three touchdowns and ran 10 times for 10 yards.

27-21
Final
San José State · Rynearson Stadium
21
Eastern Michigan held to
vs 28.0 season avg
316
Luke Weaver
passing yds, 3 TD

We had this one the other way

Before kickoff we made Eastern Michigan the pick by about 18. The model missed the side: it favored Eastern Michigan by ~18, but San José State won by 6 as the underdog.

Model (pregame)Result
PickEastern Michigan by 18 (87%)San José State by 6
Vs. the spreadEastern Michigan (+16 vs mkt)didn't cover ✗
What we projected, and how it landed

The big plays only went one way

San José State produced 7 plays of 15+ yards to Eastern Michigan's 2, chiefly Luke Weaver (involved in 7), Cooper Hoch (involved in 2) and Jase Nix (involved in 1). San José State scored on 38% of its drives to Eastern Michigan's 14%, chiefly Luke Weaver (18 pts), Cooper Hoch (12 pts) and Jase Nix (6 pts). That's what carried San José State.

Head to head
San José StateEastern Michigan
Points
27
21
Scored on % of drives
37.5%
14.3%
Three-and-out %
37.5%
42.9%
Yards / drive
23.5
20.4

How the two sides actually played on the night.

Three plays

Strip it back and a few snaps did the work. Luke Weaver's 51-yard throw to Cooper Hoch on 2nd-and-8 at Q2 01:35. Then Amareon Blue's 50-yard run for a touchdown on 4th-and-1 at Q3 11:52. Later, Luke Weaver's 40-yard throw to Cooper Hoch for a touchdown on 2nd-and-6 at Q4 11:19.

The names on it

Luke Weaver threw for 316 yards on 39 attempts with three touchdowns and ran 10 times for 10 yards — that score from inside the 20, four third-down conversions and a hand in seven plays of 15 yards or more. Cooper Hoch caught five passes for 115 yards, two of them for touchdowns, with that score from inside the 20. Jase Nix caught two passes for 39 yards, one of them for a touchdown. For Eastern Michigan, Amareon Blue ran 11 times for 81 yards and one score and caught three passes for 12 yards — two third-down conversions. Harold Mack caught seven passes for 72 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20. Noah Kim threw for 174 yards on 43 attempts with one touchdown and ran three times for 10 yards — that score from inside the 20. Dylan Lee was the disruptive one for San José State: 1 TFL, 1 INT, 2 PBUs, 6 tackles.

TeamPassingRushingReceiving
San José StateLuke Weaver 316, 3 TDJabari Bates 119Cooper Hoch 115, 2 TD
Eastern MichiganNoah Kim 174, 1 TDAmareon Blue 81, 1 TDHarold Mack 72, 1 TD
Leaders

The order of events

Eastern Michigan struck first through Noah Kim, San José State led 10-7 at the half and the final points came on a late field goal by Trajan Sinatra.

WhenTeamPlay
Q2 09:19Eastern Michigan(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Noah Kim pass complete short left to Harold Mack caught at…
Q2 01:19San José State(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Luke Weaver pass complete deep left to Jase Nix caught at…
Q2 00:00San José StateTrajan Sinatra 45 Yd Field Goal
Q3 11:52Eastern Michigan(12:00) Shotgun Amareon Blue rush middle for 50 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock…
Q3 06:08San José State(06:14) No Huddle-Shotgun Luke Weaver pass complete short right to Cooper Hoch caught at…
Q3 00:53Eastern Michigan(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Luke Weaver sacked for loss of 11 yards to the SJSU01 (Ronn…
Q4 11:19San José State(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Luke Weaver pass complete deep middle to Cooper Hoch caught at…
Q4 01:37San José State(01:40) Trajan Sinatra field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD (H: Trent Carrizosa, LS…
How the points were scored
The swing — scoreboard margin by quarter
SJS aheadEM ahead
tiedSJS take the leadTiedQ1SJS +3Q2EM +4Q3SJS +6Final

Cumulative margin after each quarter (lead change). Above the line = SJS ahead, below = EM ahead.

The disruptive ones

Three names to keep: Dylan Lee (1 TFL, 1 INT, 2 PBUs, 6 tackles) for San José State, Caleb Dobbs (1 INT, 3 PBUs, 1.5 tackles) for Eastern Michigan and Ronn Hardin (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 tackles) for Eastern Michigan.

Where it leaves them

What comparable games predict next
Eastern Michigan offense (loser)100% of 6 rebounded

Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.

A program win for San José State; a gut-check loss Eastern Michigan won't soon forget. Amareon Blue was responsible for 6 of Eastern Michigan's points; there was not enough behind him.

Discussion

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