San José State vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SJSUTeam statsUSC
- Q4 1:45SJSULuke Weaver 7 Yd Run (Luke Weaver Pass to Cooper Hoch for Two-Point Conversion)26–42
- Q4 5:11SJSUJordan Anderson 3 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)18–42
- Q4 9:42USCShahn Alston 1 Yd Run (Caden Chittenden Kick)11–42
- Q4 14:56SJSUJerry McClure 28 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Luke Weaver Pass to Kamaehu Kopa-Kaawalauole for Two-Point Conversion)11–35
- Q3 2:28USCTrent Mosley 14 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)3–35
- Q3 7:15SJSUTrajan Sinatra 22 Yd Field Goal 3–28
- Q2 0:30USCKing Miller 4 Yd Run (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–28
- Q2 2:46USCKayden Dixon-Wyatt 9 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–21
- Q2 14:20USCRiley Wormley 5 Yd Run (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:55USCJayden Maiava 1 Yd Run (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–7
How the model called it
USC never trailed and never pulled away either: the margin came from third down and field position, not from anything San José State failed to do offensively.
USC ran 76 plays to San José State's 56 and needed almost none of them to be spectacular. Nine of them gained 15 yards or more, against five for the Spartans, and Jayden Maiava had a hand in six. This was never a case of one team being able to move the ball and the other not — San José State moved it, 35.5 yards a drive. It was a case of who kept earning another snap.
- PassLuke Weaver 21/32, 234 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLuke Weaver 8 CAR, 42 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCarson Clark 6 REC, 74 YDS
- PassJayden Maiava 25/29, 286 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKing Miller 15 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrent Mosley 7 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. USC?
San José State 26, USC 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| SJSU | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 336 | Total yards | 505 |
| 234 | Passing yards | 341 |
| 102 | Rushing yards | 164 |
| 19 | First downs | 29 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 21/32 | Comp/Att | 30/36 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1-15 | Penalties | 5-34 |
| 22:45 | Possession | 37:15 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:45SJSULuke Weaver 7 Yd Run (Luke Weaver Pass to Cooper Hoch for Two-Point Conversion)26–42
- Q4 5:11SJSUJordan Anderson 3 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)18–42
- Q4 9:42USCShahn Alston 1 Yd Run (Caden Chittenden Kick)11–42
- Q4 14:56SJSUJerry McClure 28 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Luke Weaver Pass to Kamaehu Kopa-Kaawalauole for Two-Point Conversion)11–35
- Q3 2:28USCTrent Mosley 14 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)3–35
- Q3 7:15SJSUTrajan Sinatra 22 Yd Field Goal 3–28
- Q2 0:30USCKing Miller 4 Yd Run (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–28
- Q2 2:46USCKayden Dixon-Wyatt 9 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–21
- Q2 14:20USCRiley Wormley 5 Yd Run (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:55USCJayden Maiava 1 Yd Run (Caden Chittenden Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1747, SJSU Elo 1411 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -15.8 (85% to win) — 21.7 points clear of SJSU's market line of -37.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SJSU | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.6 (#57) | CORE overall | +32.7 (#2) |
| -2 / -6 | offense / defense | +22 / -11 |
| 2.39 | points / drive | 4.28 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 1.11 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 6% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Jayden Maiava was responsible for 18 of USC's 42 points
USC never trailed and never pulled away either: the margin came from third down and field position, not from anything San José State failed to do offensively.
Maiava went 3-for-4 on third down, and USC went 9-for-13
Third down is where this separated. USC converted nine of 13, 69 percent, against 45 percent for the Spartans, and the conversions came from a short list: Maiava 3-for-4 with his own arm and legs, Shahn Alston 2-for-2, Deshonne Redeaux 2-for-2 on the only two third downs that came his way. San José State went three-and-out on half its ten possessions. USC went three-and-out twice, and then had the ball back with a lead.
Field position followed from that. The Spartans started an average drive 72.7 yards from the end zone; the Trojans started 65.7 — seven yards closer, every possession, which across ten drives is a great deal of ground one offense never had to cover. Luke Weaver's group had to travel further to reach the same places, and USC scored on 60 percent of its drives to San José State's 40 percent while doing less work per trip.
Trent Mosley caught seven of nine, and nobody found an answer
Maiava threw at Mosley nine times and completed seven for 118 yards, comfortably the most productive connection on the field and worth close to nine points of expected value by itself. The touchdown came at Q3 2:28: a short right throw Mosley caught at the Spartan 9 and carried the last 14 yards into the end zone. That made it 35-3 with a quarter and a half still to play, and it was the last time the outcome was in question.
The rushing line reads minus-9 yards on three carries for Maiava, the least flattering true number in the game and also close to meaningless. One of those carries was the 1-yard keeper at Q1 8:55 that opened the scoring; the damage came at Q2 4:23, when Dylan Lee sacked him for 13 and USC took an intentional grounding flag on top of it. Across 32 plays he generated about 14 points of expected value on 286 passing yards and two scores.
Luke Weaver had the best individual night on the field and lost by 16
Weaver threw for 234 yards on 32 attempts with two touchdowns and added 42 rushing yards on eight carries with a third, worth about 12 points of expected value over 39 snaps — the same 18 points of scoring responsibility Maiava carried. His deep middle throw to Carson Clark at Q3 10:16 went 42 yards and was the most valuable pass either quarterback attempted. Clark caught all six balls thrown his way for 74 yards. None of it changed the result.
Jide Abasiri kept ending Spartan drives before they got to the good part
Abasiri finished with 2.5 tackles for loss among three tackles, and the plays he made took roughly six points off the board, more than any defender on either sideline. The largest arrived at Q2 8:21, fourth-and-1 from the USC 7, when he met Isaiah Carlson two yards deep in the backfield and San José State walked off with nothing. Carlson's night: minus-2 rushing yards on three carries, every one of them taken inside the red zone.
The Spartan defense was not the problem either. Ethan Powell's 6.5 tackles and single tackle for loss denied about five points, and it was Powell who made the stop at Q1 3:59 — fourth-and-4, Maiava running right, tackled at the Spartan 1 — that ended the most damaging drive USC ran all night. Naseri Danielson added eight-and-a-half tackles and the game's only takeaway, picking off Jonas Williams at the USC 41 with 2:33 left.
The fourth quarter San José State won 23-7
Weaver's 28-yard touchdown throw to Jerry Mcclure at Q4 14:56 opened a quarter the Spartans took 23-7. Jordan Anderson's 3-yard catch at 5:11 followed, then Weaver's own 7-yard run at 1:45 with a two-point pass to Cooper Hoch behind it. In between, Viliami Teu broke a 24-yard run on third-and-11 at 6:54, the single most valuable snap either team produced. Against a 35-3 deficit entering the quarter, all of it was scoreboard repair.
What each side carries out of the Coliseum
USC leaves with an offense that never had to invent anything. Six different players scored: King Miller carried 15 times for 63 yards and punched in a 4-yarder at Q2 0:30, Riley Wormley touched the ball twice and one of them was a 5-yard touchdown at Q2 14:20, Kayden Dixon-Wyatt caught four for 36 and a score. The unfinished business is short-yardage — 60 percent scoring is strong, and the drive that died at the Spartan 1 says it is not automatic.
The Spartans leave with a quarterback who accounted for 18 points against a roster favored to bury him, a receiver in Clark who caught everything thrown at him, and a run game split between Carlson's minus-2 yards and Teu's 25 on two carries. Weaver explains most of what went right. The 50 percent three-and-out rate, and the fourth-and-1 at the USC 7 that Abasiri blew up, explain the rest.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →