Texas State vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TXSTTeam statsUSM
- Q4 1:39USMJeffery Pittman 2 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)41–14
- Q4 7:45TXSTChristopher Jones 100 Yd Interception Return (Tyler Robles Kick)41–7
- Q4 12:32TXSTLincoln Pare 1 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)34–7
- Q3 2:58USMElijah Metcalf 4 Yd pass from Landry Lyddy (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)27–7
- Q2 1:06TXSTBrad Jackson 4 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)27–0
- Q2 6:03TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 82 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)20–0
- Q2 10:41TXSTTyler Robles 50 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q1 2:16TXSTBrad Jackson 3 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:12TXSTTyler Robles 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TXST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassBrad Jackson 14/17, 192 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLincoln Pare 21 CAR, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChris Dawn Jr. 5 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLandry Lyddy 29/44, 267 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJeffery Pittman 11 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RecElijah Metcalf 10 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTXST up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:16TXST +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 6:03TXST +9%
PENALTY TXST False Start (#68 S.Burns) 5 yards from USM03 to USM08. NO PLAY
- Q2 0:36TXST +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush right for 5 yards gain to the TXST35 (#3 I.Foster; #17 M.Montgomery)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Southern Miss?
Texas State 41, Southern Miss 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
| TXST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 449 | Total yards | 391 |
| 192 | Passing yards | 267 |
| 257 | Rushing yards | 124 |
| 24 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 10-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 14/17 | Comp/Att | 29/44 |
| 11.3 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-41 | Penalties | 6-51 |
| 32:04 | Possession | 27:56 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:12 TXST field goal on 4th & 1 at USM 6. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:39USMJeffery Pittman 2 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)41–14
- Q4 7:45TXSTChristopher Jones 100 Yd Interception Return (Tyler Robles Kick)41–7
- Q4 12:32TXSTLincoln Pare 1 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)34–7
- Q3 2:58USMElijah Metcalf 4 Yd pass from Landry Lyddy (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)27–7
- Q2 1:06TXSTBrad Jackson 4 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)27–0
- Q2 6:03TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 82 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)20–0
- Q2 10:41TXSTTyler Robles 50 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q1 2:16TXSTBrad Jackson 3 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:12TXSTTyler Robles 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1362, TXST Elo 1483 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM +2.4 (45% to win) — 5.4 points clear of TXST's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#18 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #90 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| TXST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.4 (#41) | CORE overall | -6.7 (#86) |
| +12 / +3 | offense / defense | -6 / +1 |
| 3.21 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.73 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →