California vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CALTeam statsORE
- Q4 2:26ORETraeshon Holden 6 Yd pass from Ty Thompson (Camden Lewis Kick)19–63
- Q4 9:51OREJordan James 16 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)19–56
- Q4 14:11ORETerrance Ferguson 4 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)19–49
- Q3 8:30OREBucky Irving 6 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)19–42
- Q3 13:47CALJaydn Ott 20 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–35
- Q2 0:06ORETroy Franklin 7 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)13–35
- Q2 1:39ORETez Johnson 14 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)13–28
- Q2 5:21OREBo Nix 1 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)13–21
- Q2 11:28CALMateen Bhaghani 27 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q1 1:32CALNohl Williams 9 Yd Fumble Return (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)10–14
- Q1 1:39CALMateen Bhaghani 43 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 4:40OREBo Nix 1 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:00ORETez Johnson 48 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassFernando Mendoza 18/34, 177 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJaydn Ott 20 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremiah Hunter 5 REC, 64 YDS
- PassBo Nix 29/38, 386 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushBucky Irving 18 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTez Johnson 12 REC, 180 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 835 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:21ORE +9%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
- Q1 7:00ORE +7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 48 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
- Q1 1:32CAL +6%
Nohl Williams 9 Yd Fumble Return (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
- Q2 11:28CAL +5%
Mateen Bhaghani 27 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. Oregon?
California 19, Oregon 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| CAL | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 286 | Total yards | 597 |
| 177 | Passing yards | 444 |
| 109 | Rushing yards | 153 |
| 16 | First downs | 32 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 10-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/34 | Comp/Att | 35/46 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 9.7 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-23 | Penalties | 9-99 |
| 23:26 | Possession | 36:34 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:31 ORE punt on 4th & 2 at ORE 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:26ORETraeshon Holden 6 Yd pass from Ty Thompson (Camden Lewis Kick)19–63
- Q4 9:51OREJordan James 16 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)19–56
- Q4 14:11ORETerrance Ferguson 4 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)19–49
- Q3 8:30OREBucky Irving 6 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)19–42
- Q3 13:47CALJaydn Ott 20 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–35
- Q2 0:06ORETroy Franklin 7 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)13–35
- Q2 1:39ORETez Johnson 14 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)13–28
- Q2 5:21OREBo Nix 1 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)13–21
- Q2 11:28CALMateen Bhaghani 27 Yd Field Goal 13–14
- Q1 1:32CALNohl Williams 9 Yd Fumble Return (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)10–14
- Q1 1:39CALMateen Bhaghani 43 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 4:40OREBo Nix 1 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:00ORETez Johnson 48 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 1899, CAL Elo 1502 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORE -18.3 (88% to win) — 7.2 points clear of CAL's market line of -25.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOregon leads 42–39–1 · Oregon has won 3 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| CAL | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.6 (#64) | CORE overall | +40.9 (#1) |
| -1 / +0 | offense / defense | +28 / -13 |
| 2.20 | points / drive | 4.02 |
| 2.53 | allowed / drive | 1.63 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →