Florida Atlantic vs. Clemson: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsCLEM
- Q4 1:03FAUDevin Price 33 Yd pass from Javion Posey (Logan Lupo Kick)14–48
- Q4 8:00CLEMDomonique Thomas 2 Yd Run (Robert Gunn III Kick)7–48
- Q4 12:07FAUMichael Johnson Jr. 2 Yd Run (Logan Lupo Kick)7–41
- Q3 2:56CLEMTyler Brown 2 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Robert Gunn III Kick)0–41
- Q2 3:25CLEMCade Klubnik 1 Yd Run (Robert Gunn III Kick)0–34
- Q2 12:19CLEMPhil Mafah 19 Yd Run (Robert Gunn III Kick)0–27
- Q1 1:20CLEMJake Briningstool 7 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Robert Gunn III Kick)0–20
- Q1 7:27CLEMTyler Brown 30 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Robert Gunn III PAT failed)0–13
- Q1 13:35CLEMNate Wiggins 46 Yd Interception Return (Robert Gunn III Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FAU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CLEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.0 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassDaniel Richardson 18/32, 120 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKobe Lewis 14 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecLaJohntay Wester 12 REC, 108 YDS
- PassCade Klubnik 16/27, 169 YDS, 3 TD
- RushPhil Mafah 5 CAR, 42 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAdam Randall 2 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCLEM up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 195 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:35CLEM +11%
Nate Wiggins 46 Yd Interception Return (Robert Gunn III Kick)
- Q1 7:27CLEM +6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 30 yds for a TD (Robert Gunn III PAT MISSED)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Clemson?
Florida Atlantic 14, Clemson 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CLEM) was correct.
| FAU | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 293 | Total yards | 367 |
| 210 | Passing yards | 204 |
| 83 | Rushing yards | 163 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-18 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 27/46 | Comp/Att | 20/33 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 34:07 | Possession | 25:53 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:17 FAU go for it on 4th & 9 at FAU 26. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.91 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:03FAUDevin Price 33 Yd pass from Javion Posey (Logan Lupo Kick)14–48
- Q4 8:00CLEMDomonique Thomas 2 Yd Run (Robert Gunn III Kick)7–48
- Q4 12:07FAUMichael Johnson Jr. 2 Yd Run (Logan Lupo Kick)7–41
- Q3 2:56CLEMTyler Brown 2 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Robert Gunn III Kick)0–41
- Q2 3:25CLEMCade Klubnik 1 Yd Run (Robert Gunn III Kick)0–34
- Q2 12:19CLEMPhil Mafah 19 Yd Run (Robert Gunn III Kick)0–27
- Q1 1:20CLEMJake Briningstool 7 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Robert Gunn III Kick)0–20
- Q1 7:27CLEMTyler Brown 30 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Robert Gunn III PAT failed)0–13
- Q1 13:35CLEMNate Wiggins 46 Yd Interception Return (Robert Gunn III Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLEM Elo 1654, FAU Elo 1415 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLEM -12 (79% to win) — 13.0 points clear of FAU's market line of -25. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FAU | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| -21.6 (#128) | CORE overall | +13.8 (#26) |
| -14 / +8 | offense / defense | -0 / -14 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 1.87 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 1.38 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →